Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Paul George
Boston Celtics current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER46.62025–26
NBA RANK#151of 409
PH$15.4MCore · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN25.9governed role
NEXT GAME@ Detroit Pistons2026-10-20WHAT IF IMPACT-0.4 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN30.9
PTS17.5
REB5.3
AST3.6
STL1.7
BLK0.4
3PM2.8
FG%43.7%
3P%39.4%
FT%81.7%
+/-+2.4
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Boston Celtics
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL0minutes
EXPECTED29.35pregame reference
DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G12.8 PTS · 3.6 REB · 2.2 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G15.8 PTS · 4.4 REB · 3.2 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G19.9 PTS · 5.2 REB · 3.1 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G15.8 PTS · 4.9 REB · 3.9 AST
creation→
efficiency→
minutes→
rebounding↓
scoring↑
MIXED historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS45.1%2563/5687
2-POINT49.9%1548/3100
3-POINT39.2%1015/2587
FREE THROW86.9%1203/1384
EFFECTIVE FG%54.0%
TRUE SHOOTING%58.3%
AST / TO1.62
PTS PER 3623.6rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 163 | 32.73 | 21.94 | 5.85 | 4.48 | 3.06 | 1.58 | 0.48 |
| Away | 177 | 33.17 | 21.28 | 5.83 | 4.35 | 2.92 | 1.53 | 0.41 |
| Home − Away | — | -0.4 | +0.7 | +0.0 | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.1 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 2 | 4 | 6 | 4.41 | high |
| minutes | 29 | 34 | 37.6 | 32.96 | low |
| points | 14 | 21 | 29 | 21.6 | medium |
| rebounds | 4 | 6 | 8 | 5.84 | medium |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES3710.9% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES10.3% of games
10+ ASSISTS92.6%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | @ IND | 33 | 29.29 | +12.7% | 21 | 9/19 | 6/10 | 3/9 | 0/1 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +7.0 | 54% |
| 2026-04-09 | @ HOU | 24 | 29.88 | -19.7% | 7 | 2/8 | 2/3 | 0/5 | 3/4 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -15.0 | 36% |
| 2026-04-06 | @ SAS | 38 | 28.29 | +34.3% | 16 | 5/15 | 1/10 | 4/5 | 2/4 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -6.0 | 48% |
| 2026-04-04 | vs DET | 28 | 27.11 | +3.3% | 20 | 7/14 | 4/9 | 3/5 | 3/4 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -9.0 | 64% |
| 2026-04-03 | vs MIN | 38 | 21.13 | +79.8% | 23 | 6/15 | 3/8 | 3/7 | 8/10 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 59% |
| 2026-04-01 | @ WAS | 30 | 16.44 | +82.5% | 39 | 15/22 | 9/10 | 6/12 | 3/4 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +26.0 | 82% |
| 2026-03-30 | @ MIA | 35 | 10.99 | +218.5% | 19 | 7/18 | 3/7 | 4/11 | 1/1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -22.0 | 52% |
| 2026-03-28 | @ CHA | 36 | 5.28 | +582.3% | 26 | 9/19 | 5/8 | 4/11 | 4/5 | 1 | 12 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -5.0 | 61% |
| 2026-03-25 | vs CHI | 26 | — | — | 28 | 11/22 | 5/9 | 6/13 | 0/0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +14.0 | 64% |
| 2026-01-29 | vs SAC | 36 | 19.98 | +80.2% | 15 | 7/15 | 6/11 | 1/4 | 0/0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +5.0 | 50% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS33.3%12/36 games
10+ REBOUNDS5.6%2/36 games
5+ ASSISTS33.3%12/36 games
2+ THREES72.2%26/36 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
| Season | Team(s) | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3P% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | PHI | 36 | 30.9 | 17.5 | 5.3 | 3.6 | 43.7% | 39.4% | 81.7% |
| 2024–25 | PHI | 41 | 32.6 | 16.2 | 5.3 | 4.3 | 43.0% | 35.8% | 81.4% |
| 2023–24 | LAC | 74 | 33.8 | 22.6 | 5.2 | 3.5 | 47.1% | 41.3% | 90.7% |
| 2022–23 | LAC | 56 | 34.7 | 23.8 | 6.1 | 5.1 | 45.7% | 37.1% | 87.1% |
| 2021–22 | LAC | 31 | 34.8 | 24.3 | 6.9 | 5.7 | 42.1% | 35.4% | 85.8% |
| 2020–21 | LAC | 54 | 33.7 | 23.3 | 6.7 | 5.2 | 46.7% | 41.1% | 86.8% |
| 2019–20 | LAC | 48 | 29.6 | 21.5 | 5.7 | 3.9 | 43.9% | 41.2% | 87.6% |
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | PHI | 48 | 46.6 | #151 / 409 | 15.4M | Core |
| 2024–25 | PHI | 41 | 43.0 | #218 / 422 | 11.2M | Rotation |
| 2023–24 | LAC | 80 | 54.4 | #70 / 409 | 23.4M | Core |
| 2022–23 | LAC | 56 | 54.1 | #58 / 408 | 21.1M | Core |
| 2021–22 | LAC | 32 | 51.8 | #89 / 423 | 17.1M | Core |
| 2020–21 | LAC | 74 | 56.9 | #40 / 410 | 26.2M | High Value |
| 2019–20 | LAC | 62 | 53.4 | #62 / 385 | 21.8M | Core |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER46.6descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#151of 409 ranked
PH$15.4MCore
SAMPLE48observed games
Ball security68
Box defence49
Creation44
Efficiency46
Rebounding23
Scoring59
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE+9.9 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct
AF MOVEMENT+14.8 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGECONTRACTING-6.2 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY42-0.4 pp next-game What If impact
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
PHI
Philadelphia 76ers
EXPECTED MIN22.3
SCORING SHARE14.1%
CREATION SHARE14.9%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR65.5%
With/without sample did not qualify for publication.