Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Jarred Vanderbilt
Los Angeles Lakers current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER31.62025–26
NBA RANK#367of 409
PH$6.4MDepth · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN3.8governed role
NEXT GAMEvs Golden State Warriors2026-10-21WHAT IF IMPACT-0.9 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN17.5
PTS4.4
REB4.5
AST1.3
STL0.8
BLK0.3
3PM0.5
FG%46.3%
3P%29.5%
FT%58.9%
+/-+0.5
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Los Angeles Lakers
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL0minutes
EXPECTED12.37pregame reference
DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G2.2 PTS · 3 REB · 1.4 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G3.2 PTS · 2.6 REB · 1 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G2.9 PTS · 3.1 REB · 1.1 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G4.8 PTS · 3.8 REB · 1.2 AST
creation↑
efficiency↓
minutes→
rebounding→
scoring↑
MIXED historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS54.6%829/1517
2-POINT60.0%753/1255
3-POINT29.0%76/262
FREE THROW63.6%318/500
EFFECTIVE FG%57.1%
TRUE SHOOTING%59.1%
AST / TO1.5
PTS PER 3610.29rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 177 | 19.92 | 5.56 | 6.08 | 1.26 | 0.23 | 0.96 | 0.4 |
| Away | 176 | 20.75 | 6.07 | 6.28 | 1.65 | 0.2 | 1.15 | 0.44 |
| Home − Away | — | -0.8 | -0.5 | -0.2 | -0.4 | +0.0 | -0.2 | -0.0 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1.45 | high |
| minutes | 14.6 | 21 | 26.9 | 20.34 | medium |
| points | 2 | 5 | 9 | 5.81 | high |
| rebounds | 3 | 6 | 9 | 6.18 | high |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES226.2% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS00.0%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | vs PHX | 19 | 12.15 | +56.4% | 6 | 3/6 | 3/4 | 0/2 | 0/0 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +6.0 | 50% |
| 2026-04-09 | @ GSW | 26 | 9.22 | +182% | 2 | 1/3 | 1/1 | 0/2 | 0/0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | +15.0 | 33% |
| 2026-04-07 | vs OKC | 5 | 10.13 | -50.6% | 3 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 1/1 | 0/3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -4.0 | 65% |
| 2026-04-02 | @ OKC | 12 | 10.1 | +18.9% | 9 | 4/7 | 4/5 | 0/2 | 1/2 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2.0 | 57% |
| 2026-03-30 | vs WAS | 23 | 7.19 | +219.9% | 4 | 1/3 | 1/2 | 0/1 | 2/4 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +5.0 | 42% |
| 2026-03-27 | vs BKN | 10 | 5.91 | +69.3% | 0 | 0/1 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +6.0 | 0% |
| 2026-03-25 | @ IND | 12 | 4.81 | +149.7% | 5 | 2/2 | 1/1 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -9.0 | 125% |
| 2026-03-23 | @ DET | 15 | 2.15 | +597.1% | 4 | 2/4 | 2/3 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -2.0 | 50% |
| 2026-03-12 | vs CHI | 10 | 9.68 | +3.3% | 0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3.0 | — |
| 2026-03-10 | vs MIN | 15 | 7.6 | +97.4% | 4 | 2/5 | 2/3 | 0/2 | 0/0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1.0 | 40% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS0.0%0/62 games
10+ REBOUNDS4.8%3/62 games
5+ ASSISTS1.6%1/62 games
2+ THREES6.5%4/62 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
| Season | Team(s) | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3P% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | LAL | 62 | 17.5 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 46.3% | 29.5% | 58.9% |
| 2024–25 | LAL | 35 | 16.2 | 4.1 | 5.1 | 1.1 | 48.3% | 26.7% | 58.8% |
| 2023–24 | LAL | 29 | 20.1 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 51.7% | 29.6% | 66.7% |
| 2022–23 | UTALAL | 78 | 24.1 | 7.9 | 7.5 | 2.4 | 54.8% | 32.2% | 69.1% |
| 2021–22 | MIN | 74 | 25.4 | 6.9 | 8.4 | 1.3 | 58.7% | 14.3% | 65.6% |
| 2020–21 | MIN | 64 | 17.8 | 5.4 | 5.8 | 1.2 | 60.6% | 20.0% | 55.9% |
| 2019–20 | DENMIN | 11 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 62.5% | 0.0% | 100.0% |
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | LAL | 69 | 31.6 | #367 / 409 | 6.4M | Depth |
| 2024–25 | LAL | 40 | 36.7 | #319 / 422 | 6.7M | Depth |
| 2023–24 | LAL | 30 | 39.3 | #264 / 409 | 7.9M | Depth |
| 2022–23 | LAL | 94 | 46.1 | #158 / 408 | 15.7M | Core |
| 2021–22 | MIN | 81 | 48.8 | #119 / 423 | 18.6M | Core |
| 2020–21 | MIN | 72 | 54.8 | #58 / 410 | 18.7M | Core |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER31.6descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#367of 409 ranked
PH$6.4MDepth
SAMPLE69observed games
Ball security28
Box defence50
Creation24
Efficiency32
Rebounding59
Scoring9
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE+4.5 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct
AF MOVEMENT-14.2 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGECONTRACTING-13.0 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY38-0.9 pp next-game What If impact
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
LAL
Los Angeles Lakers
EXPECTED MIN13.4
SCORING SHARE3.7%
CREATION SHARE4.8%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR72.0%
With/without sample did not qualify for publication.