Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Jaden Hardy
Los Angeles Lakers current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER38.62025–26
NBA RANK#277of 409
PH$7.7MDepth · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN32.0governed role
NEXT GAMEvs Golden State Warriors2026-10-21WHAT IF IMPACT-0.3 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN15.4
PTS8.9
REB1.5
AST1.0
STL0.3
BLK0.1
3PM1.9
FG%42.6%
3P%41.1%
FT%81.8%
+/--1.3
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Los Angeles Lakers
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL0minutes
EXPECTED21.08pregame reference
DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G0 PTS · 0 REB · 0 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G11.8 PTS · 2.2 REB · 2 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G5.1 PTS · 0.7 REB · 0.7 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G8.9 PTS · 1.7 REB · 1.6 AST
creation→
efficiency↑
minutes→
rebounding↓
scoring↑
MIXED historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS42.4%660/1558
2-POINT46.0%353/767
3-POINT38.8%307/791
FREE THROW79.0%226/286
EFFECTIVE FG%52.2%
TRUE SHOOTING%55.0%
AST / TO1.29
PTS PER 3620.16rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 113 | 14.29 | 7.57 | 1.66 | 1.33 | 1.27 | 0.28 | 0.11 |
| Away | 110 | 15.4 | 9.07 | 1.75 | 1.34 | 1.48 | 0.45 | 0.09 |
| Home − Away | — | -1.1 | -1.5 | -0.1 | -0.0 | -0.2 | -0.2 | +0.0 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1.33 | high |
| minutes | 6 | 14 | 22.6 | 14.84 | high |
| points | 2 | 7 | 14 | 8.31 | high |
| rebounds | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1.71 | high |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS00.0%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | @ MIA | 25 | 20.83 | +20% | 19 | 7/15 | 2/5 | 5/10 | 0/0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | +3.0 | 63% |
| 2026-04-01 | vs PHI | 25 | 20.54 | +21.7% | 7 | 3/12 | 2/4 | 1/8 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +4.0 | 29% |
| 2026-03-30 | @ LAL | 22 | 22.02 | -0.1% | 11 | 4/8 | 2/3 | 2/5 | 1/2 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -12.0 | 62% |
| 2026-03-27 | @ GSW | 12 | 22.08 | -45.6% | 14 | 4/5 | 0/0 | 4/5 | 2/2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -7.0 | 119% |
| 2026-03-22 | @ NYK | 29 | 17.88 | +62.2% | 25 | 9/18 | 2/5 | 7/13 | 0/0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -12.0 | 69% |
| 2026-03-21 | vs OKC | 19 | 18.03 | +5.4% | 10 | 4/6 | 2/4 | 2/2 | 0/0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -22.0 | 83% |
| 2026-03-19 | vs DET | 25 | 16.85 | +48.4% | 13 | 5/10 | 2/3 | 3/7 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -12.0 | 65% |
| 2026-03-17 | vs DET | 32 | 15.27 | +109.5% | 16 | 6/15 | 2/6 | 4/9 | 0/0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -12.0 | 53% |
| 2026-03-14 | @ BOS | 15 | 13.3 | +12.8% | 12 | 5/5 | 3/3 | 2/2 | 0/0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +17.0 | 120% |
| 2026-03-10 | @ MIA | 23 | 15.9 | +44.7% | 17 | 5/12 | 2/4 | 3/8 | 4/4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -8.0 | 62% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS4.2%2/48 games
10+ REBOUNDS0.0%0/48 games
5+ ASSISTS4.2%2/48 games
2+ THREES52.1%25/48 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | DAL | 48 | 38.6 | #277 / 409 | 7.7M | Depth |
| 2024–25 | DAL | 56 | 34.7 | #348 / 422 | 6.6M | Depth |
| 2023–24 | DAL | 92 | 36.5 | #313 / 409 | 7.6M | Depth |
| 2022–23 | DAL | 48 | 42.7 | #204 / 408 | 9.6M | Depth |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER38.6descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#277of 409 ranked
PH$7.7MDepth
SAMPLE48observed games
Ball security59
Box defence16
Creation17
Efficiency49
Rebounding13
Scoring66
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE-39.5 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct
AF MOVEMENT+14.8 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGEEXPANDING+16.5 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY33-0.3 pp next-game What If impact
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
WAS
Washington Wizards
EXPECTED MIN16.6
SCORING SHARE12.2%
CREATION SHARE3.2%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR70.1%
With/without sample did not qualify for publication.
DAL
Dallas Mavericks
EXPECTED MIN7.6
SCORING SHARE6.1%
CREATION SHARE3.1%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR60.1%
With/without sample did not qualify for publication.