Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Trendon Watford
New Orleans Pelicans current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER39.62025–26
NBA RANK#257of 409
PH$8.5MDepth · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN42.0governed role
NEXT GAMEvs Indiana Pacers2026-10-21WHAT IF IMPACTWithheldteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN16.4
PTS6.2
REB3.3
AST2.5
STL0.3
BLK0.3
3PM0.2
FG%49.4%
3P%21.3%
FT%77.8%
+/--2.8
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · New Orleans Pelicans
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL0minutes
EXPECTED3.17pregame reference
DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G0.8 PTS · 0.2 REB · 0.4 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G8.8 PTS · 3.6 REB · 3 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G1 PTS · 0.4 REB · 0.3 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G7 PTS · 3.3 REB · 2.3 AST
creation↑
efficiency→
minutes→
rebounding→
scoring↑
MIXED historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS51.8%761/1469
2-POINT56.8%663/1168
3-POINT32.6%98/301
FREE THROW75.9%356/469
EFFECTIVE FG%55.1%
TRUE SHOOTING%59.0%
AST / TO1.68
PTS PER 3615.6rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 131 | 16.66 | 6.76 | 3.24 | 1.98 | 0.27 | 0.46 | 0.27 |
| Away | 130 | 18.3 | 8.39 | 3.97 | 2.03 | 0.48 | 0.48 | 0.39 |
| Home − Away | — | -1.6 | -1.6 | -0.7 | -0.1 | -0.2 | -0.0 | -0.1 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2.01 | high |
| minutes | 9 | 18 | 25 | 17.48 | high |
| points | 2 | 6 | 12 | 7.57 | high |
| rebounds | 1 | 3 | 6 | 3.6 | high |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES83.1% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES10.4% of games
10+ ASSISTS10.4%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | vs DET | 5 | 6.71 | -25.4% | 4 | 1/1 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 2/2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -4.0 | 106% |
| 2026-04-01 | @ WAS | 3 | 11.49 | -73.9% | 2 | 1/1 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 100% |
| 2026-03-25 | vs CHI | 15 | 19.93 | -24.7% | 4 | 2/7 | 2/6 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +7.0 | 29% |
| 2026-03-23 | vs OKC | 22 | 19.44 | +13.2% | 14 | 6/10 | 6/8 | 0/2 | 2/2 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -8.0 | 64% |
| 2026-03-19 | @ SAC | 10 | 20.6 | -51.5% | 2 | 0/2 | 0/1 | 0/1 | 2/2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -17.0 | 35% |
| 2026-03-17 | @ DEN | 22 | 19.56 | +12.5% | 12 | 3/7 | 3/5 | 0/2 | 6/6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -9.0 | 62% |
| 2026-03-15 | vs POR | 27 | 17.97 | +50.2% | 7 | 3/7 | 3/5 | 0/2 | 1/2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -8.0 | 44% |
| 2026-03-14 | vs BKN | 18 | 18.85 | -4.5% | 10 | 5/9 | 5/7 | 0/2 | 0/1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -2.0 | 53% |
| 2026-03-12 | @ DET | 20 | 18.48 | +8.2% | 4 | 2/5 | 2/4 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -20.0 | 40% |
| 2026-03-09 | @ CLE | 20 | 17.5 | +14.3% | 6 | 3/8 | 3/5 | 0/3 | 0/0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -5.0 | 38% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS2.1%1/48 games
10+ REBOUNDS2.1%1/48 games
5+ ASSISTS10.4%5/48 games
2+ THREES2.1%1/48 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | PHI | 55 | 39.6 | #257 / 409 | 8.5M | Depth |
| 2024–25 | BKN | 42 | 43.4 | #216 / 422 | 10.2M | Rotation |
| 2023–24 | BKN | 62 | 48.7 | #133 / 409 | 13.4M | Rotation |
| 2022–23 | POR | 62 | 46.4 | #149 / 408 | 13.3M | Rotation |
| 2021–22 | POR | 53 | 48.7 | #121 / 423 | 14.4M | Rotation |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER39.6descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#257of 409 ranked
PH$8.5MDepth
SAMPLE55observed games
Ball security20
Box defence29
Creation58
Efficiency42
Rebounding37
Scoring33
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE-58.0 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct
AF MOVEMENT-11.7 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGEEXPANDING+26.9 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY—governed What If sample unavailable
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
PHI
Philadelphia 76ers
EXPECTED MIN10.8
SCORING SHARE5.9%
CREATION SHARE10.4%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR66.5%
With/without sample did not qualify for publication.