Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Baylor Scheierman
Boston Celtics current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER41.02025–26
NBA RANK#229of 409
PH$11.3MRotation · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN21.1governed role
NEXT GAME@ Detroit Pistons2026-10-20WHAT IF IMPACT-0.9 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN18.6
PTS5.6
REB3.5
AST1.4
STL0.6
BLK0.1
3PM1.3
FG%45.3%
3P%40.1%
FT%89.7%
+/-+2.0
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Boston Celtics
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL39minutes
EXPECTED20.76pregame reference
DEVIATION+87.9%expanded minutes
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G13.4 PTS · 4 REB · 2 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G8 PTS · 3.2 REB · 2 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G9.5 PTS · 3.1 REB · 2.1 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G6.1 PTS · 4.6 REB · 2.2 AST
creation→
efficiency→
minutes→
rebounding↓
scoring→
MIXED historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS43.6%180/413
2-POINT57.7%64/111
3-POINT38.4%116/302
FREE THROW87.2%34/39
EFFECTIVE FG%57.6%
TRUE SHOOTING%59.3%
AST / TO2.45
PTS PER 3610.83rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 48 | 17.04 | 5.6 | 3.21 | 1.38 | 1.25 | 0.46 | 0.1 |
| Away | 54 | 16.26 | 4.46 | 2.94 | 1.28 | 1.04 | 0.57 | 0.06 |
| Home − Away | — | +0.8 | +1.1 | +0.3 | +0.1 | +0.2 | -0.1 | +0.0 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1.32 | high |
| minutes | 6 | 15 | 26 | 16.63 | high |
| points | 0 | 3 | 9 | 5 | high |
| rebounds | 1 | 2 | 5 | 3.07 | high |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES43.9% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS00.0%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | vs ORL | 39 | 20.76 | +87.9% | 30 | 8/20 | 2/6 | 6/14 | 8/8 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | +15.0 | 64% |
| 2026-04-10 | vs NOP | 25 | 20.92 | +19.5% | 9 | 3/6 | 1/1 | 2/5 | 1/1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +5.0 | 70% |
| 2026-04-09 | @ NYK | 30 | 20.48 | +46.5% | 20 | 7/8 | 1/1 | 6/7 | 0/0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1.0 | 125% |
| 2026-04-07 | vs CHA | 9 | 23.43 | -61.6% | 3 | 1/2 | 0/0 | 1/2 | 0/0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1.0 | 75% |
| 2026-04-05 | vs TOR | 17 | 24.12 | -29.5% | 5 | 2/8 | 1/3 | 1/5 | 0/0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.0 | 31% |
| 2026-04-01 | @ MIA | 18 | 26 | -30.8% | 8 | 3/4 | 1/2 | 2/2 | 0/0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | +14.0 | 100% |
| 2026-03-30 | @ ATL | 26 | 26 | 0% | 3 | 1/4 | 0/0 | 1/4 | 0/0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -3.0 | 38% |
| 2026-03-29 | @ CHA | 28 | 25.56 | +9.6% | 14 | 4/11 | 1/4 | 3/7 | 3/4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +6.0 | 55% |
| 2026-03-27 | vs ATL | 28 | 25.12 | +11.4% | 3 | 1/3 | 0/0 | 1/3 | 0/0 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -13.0 | 50% |
| 2026-03-25 | vs OKC | 20 | 26.04 | -23.2% | 11 | 4/8 | 1/1 | 3/7 | 0/0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +11.0 | 69% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS2.7%2/73 games
10+ REBOUNDS5.5%4/73 games
5+ ASSISTS5.5%4/73 games
2+ THREES31.5%23/73 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | BOS | 80 | 41.0 | #229 / 409 | 11.3M | Rotation |
| 2024–25 | BOS | 33 | 32.1 | #378 / 422 | 5.5M | Depth |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER41.0descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#229of 409 ranked
PH$11.3MRotation
SAMPLE80observed games
Ball security64
Box defence25
Creation37
Efficiency60
Rebounding36
Scoring13
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE+2.4 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct
AF MOVEMENT+33.7 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGESTABLE+2.9 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY47-0.9 pp next-game What If impact
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
BOS
Boston Celtics
EXPECTED MIN16.7
SCORING SHARE4.6%
CREATION SHARE5.4%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR83.7%
With/without sample did not qualify for publication.