Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Max Christie
Dallas Mavericks current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER39.02025–26
NBA RANK#273of 409
PH$10.4MRotation · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN22.2governed role
NEXT GAME@ Houston Rockets2026-10-21WHAT IF IMPACT+0.0 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN29.3
PTS12.5
REB3.5
AST2.0
STL0.5
BLK0.3
3PM2.4
FG%44.3%
3P%40.1%
FT%88.7%
+/--4.5
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Dallas Mavericks
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL0minutes
EXPECTED26.61pregame reference
DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G0 PTS · 0 REB · 0 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G10.2 PTS · 2.8 REB · 1.2 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G1.9 PTS · 0.8 REB · 0.5 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G8.5 PTS · 2.9 REB · 1.3 AST
creation↓
efficiency→
minutes→
rebounding→
scoring→
MIXED historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS43.1%658/1526
2-POINT49.3%332/673
3-POINT38.2%326/853
FREE THROW86.1%278/323
EFFECTIVE FG%53.8%
TRUE SHOOTING%57.6%
AST / TO1.69
PTS PER 3612.91rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 123 | 22.13 | 8.37 | 2.67 | 1.31 | 1.51 | 0.55 | 0.34 |
| Away | 121 | 21.76 | 7.36 | 2.89 | 1.54 | 1.16 | 0.48 | 0.27 |
| Home − Away | — | +0.4 | +1.0 | -0.2 | -0.2 | +0.3 | +0.1 | +0.1 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1.42 | high |
| minutes | 11 | 25 | 31.4 | 21.95 | medium |
| points | 2 | 7 | 13 | 7.87 | high |
| rebounds | 1 | 2 | 5 | 2.78 | high |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS00.0%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-03 | vs ORL | 29 | 26.61 | +9% | 14 | 4/7 | 1/1 | 3/6 | 3/3 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +8.0 | 84% |
| 2026-03-27 | @ POR | 25 | 26.63 | -6.1% | 5 | 1/8 | 0/3 | 1/5 | 2/2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -4.0 | 28% |
| 2026-03-21 | vs LAC | 23 | 26.55 | -13.4% | 7 | 2/11 | 1/4 | 1/7 | 2/2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -15.0 | 30% |
| 2026-03-18 | vs ATL | 30 | 26.05 | +15.2% | 13 | 4/6 | 2/2 | 2/4 | 3/3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | -16.0 | 89% |
| 2026-03-13 | vs CLE | 27 | 27.45 | -1.6% | 12 | 4/8 | 2/2 | 2/6 | 2/2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -9.0 | 68% |
| 2026-03-10 | @ ATL | 25 | 27.72 | -9.8% | 6 | 2/6 | 0/0 | 2/6 | 0/0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -12.0 | 50% |
| 2026-03-08 | @ TOR | 26 | 28.37 | -8.4% | 2 | 1/11 | 1/4 | 0/7 | 0/0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -22.0 | 9% |
| 2026-03-06 | @ BOS | 29 | 24.5 | +18.3% | 12 | 4/9 | 0/3 | 4/6 | 0/0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -19.0 | 67% |
| 2026-03-05 | @ ORL | 28 | 25.06 | +11.7% | 6 | 2/6 | 0/0 | 2/6 | 0/0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -12.0 | 50% |
| 2026-03-03 | @ CHA | 33 | 24.89 | +32.6% | 11 | 4/15 | 3/6 | 1/9 | 2/2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1.0 | 35% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS12.7%8/63 games
10+ REBOUNDS0.0%0/63 games
5+ ASSISTS7.9%5/63 games
2+ THREES71.4%45/63 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | DAL | 63 | 39.0 | #273 / 409 | 10.4M | Rotation |
| 2024–25 | DAL | 77 | 34.1 | #355 / 422 | 8.3M | Depth |
| 2023–24 | LAL | 68 | 29.3 | #384 / 409 | 5.9M | Depth |
| 2022–23 | LAL | 50 | 31.5 | #360 / 408 | 5.7M | Depth |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER39.0descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#273of 409 ranked
PH$10.4MRotation
SAMPLE63observed games
Ball security77
Box defence16
Creation26
Efficiency56
Rebounding13
Scoring38
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE-11.7 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct
AF MOVEMENT+17.4 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGECONTRACTING-7.1 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY17+0.0 pp next-game What If impact
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
DAL
Dallas Mavericks
EXPECTED MIN26.3
SCORING SHARE11.3%
CREATION SHARE8.4%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR81.2%
-0.84 residual margin pts in the qualified normal-load vs nonparticipation diagnostic · 36 normal-load / 4 nonparticipation games.