Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Keegan Murray
Sacramento Kings current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER37.22025–26
NBA RANK#298of 409
PH$7.1MDepth · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN42.0governed role
NEXT GAME@ LA Clippers2026-10-21WHAT IF IMPACTWithheldteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN34.7
PTS14.5
REB5.9
AST1.5
STL1.1
BLK1.6
3PM1.4
FG%43.0%
3P%28.4%
FT%80.4%
+/--7.5
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Sacramento Kings
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL0minutes
EXPECTED0.4pregame reference
DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G0 PTS · 0 REB · 0 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G13.8 PTS · 5.2 REB · 1.2 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G0 PTS · 0 REB · 0 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G12.9 PTS · 6.2 REB · 1.4 AST
creation↓
efficiency→
minutes→
rebounding↓
scoring↑
MIXED historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS45.0%1274/2829
2-POINT55.1%704/1278
3-POINT36.8%570/1551
FREE THROW81.1%262/323
EFFECTIVE FG%55.1%
TRUE SHOOTING%56.9%
AST / TO1.75
PTS PER 3614.75rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 123 | 33.02 | 14.37 | 5.64 | 1.38 | 2.41 | 0.93 | 0.68 |
| Away | 129 | 32.47 | 12.5 | 5.57 | 1.5 | 2.12 | 0.84 | 0.89 |
| Home − Away | — | +0.6 | +1.9 | +0.1 | -0.1 | +0.3 | +0.1 | -0.2 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1.44 | high |
| minutes | 27 | 33 | 38 | 32.74 | low |
| points | 7 | 13 | 19 | 13.41 | high |
| rebounds | 3 | 5 | 8 | 5.61 | high |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES2610.3% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS00.0%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-25 | @ HOU | 9 | 12.51 | -28.1% | 3 | 0/2 | 0/1 | 0/1 | 3/3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -7.0 | 45% |
| 2026-02-21 | @ SAS | 36 | 6.64 | +442% | 20 | 7/16 | 5/8 | 2/8 | 4/5 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -22.0 | 55% |
| 2026-02-19 | vs ORL | 32 | — | — | 15 | 6/13 | 3/6 | 3/7 | 0/0 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -18.0 | 58% |
| 2026-01-04 | vs MIL | 27 | 23.37 | +15.5% | 12 | 6/13 | 6/10 | 0/3 | 0/0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -16.0 | 46% |
| 2026-01-02 | @ PHX | 33 | 21.57 | +53% | 23 | 9/17 | 6/12 | 3/5 | 2/2 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -23.0 | 64% |
| 2026-01-01 | vs BOS | 38 | 22.38 | +69.8% | 7 | 3/13 | 2/9 | 1/4 | 0/0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -7.0 | 27% |
| 2025-12-30 | @ LAC | 30 | 23.73 | +26.4% | 11 | 4/13 | 3/9 | 1/4 | 2/2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -27.0 | 40% |
| 2025-12-23 | vs DET | 20 | — | — | 2 | 1/4 | 1/3 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -15.0 | 25% |
| 2025-12-21 | vs HOU | 47 | — | — | 26 | 9/14 | 6/10 | 3/4 | 5/5 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +6.0 | 80% |
| 2025-12-20 | vs POR | 40 | — | — | 15 | 7/19 | 7/13 | 0/6 | 1/1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -2.0 | 39% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS23.8%5/21 games
10+ REBOUNDS19.1%4/21 games
5+ ASSISTS0.0%0/21 games
2+ THREES38.1%8/21 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | SAC | 21 | 37.2 | #298 / 409 | 7.1M | Depth |
| 2024–25 | SAC | 76 | 36.1 | #327 / 422 | 9.9M | Depth |
| 2023–24 | SAC | 78 | 42.0 | #216 / 409 | 14.1M | Rotation |
| 2022–23 | SAC | 87 | 40.3 | #239 / 408 | 12.9M | Rotation |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER37.2descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#298of 409 ranked
PH$7.1MDepth
SAMPLE21observed games
Ball security80
Box defence53
Creation22
Efficiency28
Rebounding37
Scoring42
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE-68.0 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct
AF MOVEMENT+4.6 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGEEXPANDING+7.3 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY—governed What If sample unavailable
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
SAC
Sacramento Kings
EXPECTED MIN19.6
SCORING SHARE13.4%
CREATION SHARE6.3%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR57.3%
With/without sample did not qualify for publication.