Player-safe accepted corpus.
PLAYER PROFILE · HISTORICAL
M. Gardner
Accepted historical regular-season production. No current 2026–27 roster status is inferred.
AF-PLAYER56.82025–26
NBA RANK#38of 409
PH$16.2MCore · fictional game currencySTATUSHistoricalno current binding
EXPECTED MINWithheldonly when supported
NEXT GAMENo assigned gameSchedule pendingWHAT IF IMPACTWithheldteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN9.4
PTS3.9
REB2.7
AST1.1
STL0.5
BLK0.2
3PM0.6
FG%50.0%
3P%43.1%
FT%70.8%
+/-+1.4
NEXT GAME
Current context
No current roster binding is published for this historical profile. ProbHoops does not infer a current team, availability or expected minutes from historical data.
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
Current form is unavailable because this historical profile is not bound to the governed 2026–27 roster. No current role is inferred.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL6minutes
EXPECTED2.96pregame reference
DEVIATION+102.4%expanded minutes
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G0.8 PTS · 0.8 REB · 0.8 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G2 PTS · 2.4 REB · 1.2 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G0.9 PTS · 0.5 REB · 0.5 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G1.9 PTS · 1.6 REB · 0.7 AST
creation↑
efficiency↓
minutes→
rebounding↑
scoring↓
MIXED historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS50.0%56/112
2-POINT57.4%31/54
3-POINT43.1%25/58
FREE THROW70.8%17/24
EFFECTIVE FG%61.2%
TRUE SHOOTING%62.8%
AST / TO2.8
PTS PER 3614.78rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 18 | 10.17 | 4.39 | 3.22 | 0.78 | 0.72 | 0.61 | 0.17 |
| Away | 22 | 8.73 | 3.41 | 2.23 | 1.27 | 0.55 | 0.36 | 0.18 |
| Home − Away | — | +1.4 | +1.0 | +1.0 | -0.5 | +0.2 | +0.3 | -0.0 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1.05 | high |
| minutes | 3 | 6 | 17.2 | 9.38 | high |
| points | 0 | 3 | 7 | 3.85 | high |
| rebounds | 1 | 1.5 | 5 | 2.67 | high |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES12.5% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS00.0%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | vs ATL | 6 | 2.96 | +102.4% | 2 | 1/2 | 1/2 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +5.0 | 50% |
| 2026-04-09 | @ TOR | 3 | 3.49 | -14.1% | 2 | 1/1 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +11.0 | 100% |
| 2026-04-07 | @ TOR | 3 | 2.95 | +1.6% | 0 | 0/1 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1.0 | 0% |
| 2026-03-29 | @ IND | 1 | 9.47 | -89.4% | 2 | 1/1 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -7.0 | 100% |
| 2026-03-27 | @ CLE | 7 | 8.88 | -21.2% | 3 | 1/3 | 1/1 | 0/2 | 1/2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +1.0 | 39% |
| 2026-03-23 | vs SAS | 18 | 7.57 | +137.9% | 9 | 3/7 | 1/1 | 2/6 | 1/1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +3.0 | 61% |
| 2026-03-21 | @ HOU | 20 | 7.66 | +161% | 8 | 3/4 | 1/1 | 2/3 | 0/0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -15.0 | 100% |
| 2026-03-17 | @ CHA | 4 | 10.15 | -60.6% | 0 | 0/2 | 0/2 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4.0 | 0% |
| 2026-03-14 | vs ORL | 3 | 9.91 | -69.7% | 0 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -5.0 | 0% |
| 2026-03-12 | vs MIL | 9 | 9.21 | -2.3% | 3 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4.0 | 150% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS0.0%0/40 games
10+ REBOUNDS5.0%2/40 games
5+ ASSISTS2.5%1/40 games
2+ THREES17.5%7/40 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
| Season | Team(s) | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3P% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | MIA | 40 | 9.4 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 50.0% | 43.1% | 70.8% |
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
No current roster binding for this historical profile
This historical profile is not currently bound to the NBA Official 2026–27 roster product. ProbHoops does not infer a current team from historical data.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER56.8descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#38of 409 ranked
PH$16.2MCore
SAMPLE40observed games
Ball security49
Box defence55
Creation54
Efficiency69
Rebounding67
Scoring35
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
MIA
Miami Heat
EXPECTED MIN5.7
SCORING SHARE2.8%
CREATION SHARE2.9%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR54.6%
With/without sample did not qualify for publication.