Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Marcus Sasser
Dallas Mavericks current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER40.82025–26
NBA RANK#232of 409
PH$8.2MDepth · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN20.4governed role
NEXT GAME@ Houston Rockets2026-10-21WHAT IF IMPACT+0.4 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN11.8
PTS5.0
REB1.0
AST2.2
STL0.5
BLK0.1
3PM1.1
FG%40.3%
3P%44.4%
FT%85.7%
+/-+3.5
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Dallas Mavericks
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL0minutes
EXPECTED8.67pregame reference
DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G2 PTS · 1 REB · 1.2 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G3.4 PTS · 0.8 REB · 2.4 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G3.2 PTS · 0.7 REB · 1.6 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT7 G3.86 PTS · 0.71 REB · 2.14 AST
creation→
efficiency→
minutes→
rebounding→
scoring↓
MIXED historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS43.6%405/928
2-POINT48.2%222/461
3-POINT39.2%183/467
FREE THROW85.9%110/128
EFFECTIVE FG%53.5%
TRUE SHOOTING%56.0%
AST / TO2.54
PTS PER 3615.92rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 80 | 15.29 | 6.39 | 1.34 | 2.59 | 1.09 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| Away | 79 | 16.09 | 7.49 | 1.48 | 2.81 | 1.22 | 0.61 | 0.15 |
| Home − Away | — | -0.8 | -1.1 | -0.1 | -0.2 | -0.1 | -0.0 | -0.1 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2.7 | high |
| minutes | 7 | 15 | 24 | 15.69 | high |
| points | 2 | 6 | 11 | 6.94 | high |
| rebounds | 0 | 1 | 2.4 | 1.41 | high |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES10.6% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS10.6%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | @ CHA | 2 | 11.05 | -81.9% | 0 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1.0 | 0% |
| 2026-04-06 | @ ORL | 18 | 10.48 | +71.8% | 5 | 2/8 | 1/5 | 1/3 | 0/0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +6.0 | 31% |
| 2026-04-04 | @ PHI | 11 | 9.05 | +21.5% | 5 | 2/4 | 1/3 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +5.0 | 63% |
| 2026-04-02 | vs MIN | 8 | 8.65 | -7.5% | 2 | 0/3 | 0/2 | 0/1 | 2/2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4.0 | 26% |
| 2026-03-31 | vs TOR | 8 | 8.18 | -2.2% | 8 | 3/4 | 1/2 | 2/2 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 100% |
| 2026-03-30 | @ OKC | 18 | 8.25 | +118.2% | 12 | 4/9 | 0/3 | 4/6 | 0/2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +4.0 | 61% |
| 2026-03-28 | @ MIN | 11 | 9.25 | +19% | 0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +11.0 | — |
| 2026-03-19 | @ WAS | 14 | 18.62 | -24.8% | 2 | 1/5 | 1/1 | 0/4 | 0/0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +4.0 | 20% |
| 2026-03-17 | @ WAS | 25 | 15.5 | +61.2% | 9 | 3/7 | 0/1 | 3/6 | 0/0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | +5.0 | 64% |
| 2026-03-15 | @ TOR | 12 | 13.74 | -12.6% | 3 | 1/6 | 0/3 | 1/3 | 0/0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | +2.0 | 25% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS0.0%0/32 games
10+ REBOUNDS0.0%0/32 games
5+ ASSISTS6.3%2/32 games
2+ THREES31.3%10/32 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | DET | 38 | 40.8 | #232 / 409 | 8.2M | Depth |
| 2024–25 | DET | 56 | 48.0 | #149 / 422 | 12.5M | Rotation |
| 2023–24 | DET | 71 | 39.1 | #267 / 409 | 9.3M | Depth |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER40.8descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#232of 409 ranked
PH$8.2MDepth
SAMPLE38observed games
Ball security43
Box defence39
Creation65
Efficiency39
Rebounding13
Scoring42
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE+3.0 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct
AF MOVEMENT-21.5 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGEEXPANDING+8.9 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY37+0.4 pp next-game What If impact
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
DET
Detroit Pistons
EXPECTED MIN6.3
SCORING SHARE3.7%
CREATION SHARE7.4%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR55.9%
With/without sample did not qualify for publication.