Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Duncan Robinson
Detroit Pistons current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER44.82025–26
NBA RANK#185of 409
PH$15.3MCore · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN22.3governed role
NEXT GAMEvs Boston Celtics2026-10-20WHAT IF IMPACT+0.1 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN27.5
PTS12.1
REB2.7
AST1.9
STL0.6
BLK0.3
3PM2.8
FG%44.4%
3P%40.2%
FT%75.7%
+/-+6.6
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Detroit Pistons
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL0minutes
EXPECTED21.35pregame reference
DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G6 PTS · 1 REB · 0.6 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G12.2 PTS · 2.4 REB · 2.4 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G7.4 PTS · 1.2 REB · 1 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G11.8 PTS · 2.5 REB · 2.8 AST
creation↑
efficiency↑
minutes→
rebounding↓
scoring→
MIXED historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS43.6%1864/4277
2-POINT58.6%492/840
3-POINT39.9%1372/3437
FREE THROW85.0%415/488
EFFECTIVE FG%59.6%
TRUE SHOOTING%61.4%
AST / TO1.94
PTS PER 3615.75rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 234 | 26.43 | 12.07 | 2.54 | 1.88 | 3.05 | 0.53 | 0.16 |
| Away | 237 | 27.09 | 11.35 | 2.83 | 1.94 | 2.78 | 0.57 | 0.24 |
| Home − Away | — | -0.7 | +0.7 | -0.3 | -0.1 | +0.3 | -0.0 | -0.1 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1.91 | high |
| minutes | 21 | 27 | 33.5 | 26.76 | low |
| points | 6 | 11 | 17 | 11.71 | high |
| rebounds | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2.69 | high |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES20.4% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS10.2%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | @ CHA | 26 | 18.13 | +43.4% | 19 | 6/11 | 3/4 | 3/7 | 4/6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1.0 | 70% |
| 2026-04-04 | @ PHI | 23 | 22.74 | +1.1% | 11 | 4/7 | 1/1 | 3/6 | 0/0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +27.0 | 79% |
| 2026-04-02 | vs MIN | 29 | 22.47 | +29% | 15 | 5/11 | 2/4 | 3/7 | 2/2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | +10.0 | 63% |
| 2026-03-31 | vs TOR | 29 | 22.03 | +31.6% | 19 | 6/9 | 1/1 | 5/8 | 2/3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +10.0 | 92% |
| 2026-03-28 | @ MIN | 24 | 26.92 | -10.9% | 10 | 3/6 | 1/2 | 2/4 | 2/3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +12.0 | 68% |
| 2026-03-25 | vs ATL | 32 | 26.29 | +21.7% | 17 | 6/12 | 1/2 | 5/10 | 0/0 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +6.0 | 71% |
| 2026-03-23 | vs LAL | 28 | 25.76 | +8.7% | 12 | 4/10 | 0/1 | 4/9 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1.0 | 60% |
| 2026-03-20 | vs GSW | 29 | 24.18 | +19.9% | 11 | 4/9 | 2/3 | 2/6 | 1/2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | +37.0 | 56% |
| 2026-03-19 | @ WAS | 27 | 23.8 | +13.4% | 14 | 5/10 | 1/1 | 4/9 | 0/0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +7.0 | 70% |
| 2026-03-17 | @ WAS | 26 | 23.79 | +9.3% | 8 | 3/9 | 2/6 | 1/3 | 1/1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +11.0 | 42% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS4.5%3/66 games
10+ REBOUNDS0.0%0/66 games
5+ ASSISTS3.0%2/66 games
2+ THREES78.8%52/66 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
| Season | Team(s) | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3P% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | DET | 66 | 27.5 | 12.1 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 44.4% | 40.2% | 75.7% |
| 2024–25 | MIA | 73 | 24.1 | 10.9 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 43.2% | 38.8% | 88.2% |
| 2023–24 | MIA | 68 | 28.0 | 12.9 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 45.0% | 39.5% | 88.9% |
| 2022–23 | MIA | 42 | 16.6 | 6.4 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 37.1% | 32.8% | 90.6% |
| 2021–22 | MIA | 77 | 26.0 | 11.1 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 40.4% | 37.6% | 83.6% |
| 2020–21 | MIA | 72 | 31.4 | 13.1 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 43.9% | 40.8% | 82.7% |
| 2019–20 | MIA | 73 | 29.7 | 13.5 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 47.0% | 44.5% | 93.1% |
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | DET | 79 | 44.8 | #185 / 409 | 15.3M | Core |
| 2024–25 | MIA | 79 | 38.6 | #293 / 422 | 9.7M | Depth |
| 2023–24 | MIA | 74 | 41.4 | #232 / 409 | 11.8M | Rotation |
| 2022–23 | MIA | 65 | 34.3 | #326 / 408 | 7M | Depth |
| 2021–22 | MIA | 93 | 39.0 | #279 / 423 | 11M | Rotation |
| 2020–21 | MIA | 76 | 41.9 | #226 / 410 | 13.8M | Rotation |
| 2019–20 | MIA | 94 | 46.3 | #135 / 385 | 19M | Core |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER44.8descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#185of 409 ranked
PH$15.3MCore
SAMPLE79observed games
Ball security83
Box defence19
Creation39
Efficiency67
Rebounding7
Scoring37
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE+9.5 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct
AF MOVEMENT+24.3 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGECONTRACTING-5.5 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY27+0.1 pp next-game What If impact
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
DET
Detroit Pistons
EXPECTED MIN26.3
SCORING SHARE10.1%
CREATION SHARE7.6%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR83.5%
+5.53 residual margin pts in the qualified normal-load vs nonparticipation diagnostic · 58 normal-load / 5 nonparticipation games.