Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Julian Champagnie
San Antonio Spurs current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER44.42025–26
NBA RANK#188of 409
PH$16.3MCore · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN32.9governed role
NEXT GAMEvs Oklahoma City Thunder2026-10-20WHAT IF IMPACT-0.1 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN27.7
PTS11.1
REB5.7
AST1.6
STL0.8
BLK0.5
3PM2.4
FG%44.0%
3P%38.6%
FT%84.4%
+/-+7.3
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · San Antonio Spurs
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL25minutes
EXPECTED26.93pregame reference
DEVIATION-7.2%role consistent
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G6.8 PTS · 4.4 REB · 1.6 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G8.8 PTS · 5.6 REB · 2.4 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G9.9 PTS · 5.3 REB · 1.9 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G9.4 PTS · 6 REB · 1.9 AST
creation↑
efficiency↓
minutes→
rebounding→
scoring↓
MIXED historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS42.5%791/1859
2-POINT54.8%289/527
3-POINT37.7%502/1332
FREE THROW85.2%282/331
EFFECTIVE FG%56.0%
TRUE SHOOTING%59.0%
AST / TO1.67
PTS PER 3614.39rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 121 | 24.18 | 9.22 | 3.99 | 1.42 | 1.95 | 0.55 | 0.44 |
| Away | 131 | 22.86 | 9.54 | 4.25 | 1.36 | 2.03 | 0.82 | 0.5 |
| Home − Away | — | +1.3 | -0.3 | -0.3 | +0.1 | -0.1 | -0.3 | -0.1 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1.39 | high |
| minutes | 18 | 24 | 31 | 23.5 | medium |
| points | 3.2 | 9 | 14 | 9.39 | high |
| rebounds | 2 | 4 | 6 | 4.13 | high |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES83.2% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS00.0%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | vs DEN | 25 | 26.93 | -7.2% | 7 | 3/7 | 2/3 | 1/4 | 0/0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -17.0 | 50% |
| 2026-04-08 | vs POR | 27 | 27.31 | -1.1% | 2 | 1/6 | 1/3 | 0/3 | 0/0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +6.0 | 17% |
| 2026-04-06 | vs PHI | 27 | 26.74 | +1% | 7 | 3/6 | 2/2 | 1/4 | 0/0 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +12.0 | 58% |
| 2026-04-04 | @ DEN | 33 | 26.13 | +26.3% | 18 | 6/12 | 0/3 | 6/9 | 0/0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2.0 | 75% |
| 2026-04-02 | @ LAC | 28 | 25.56 | +9.6% | 13 | 5/13 | 4/7 | 1/6 | 2/3 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +17.0 | 45% |
| 2026-04-01 | @ GSW | 26 | 25.57 | +1.7% | 15 | 5/15 | 1/2 | 4/13 | 1/1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 49% |
| 2026-03-30 | vs CHI | 28 | 26.3 | +6.5% | 13 | 5/7 | 2/2 | 3/5 | 0/0 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +9.0 | 93% |
| 2026-03-28 | @ MIL | 23 | 26.57 | -13.4% | 11 | 4/8 | 1/1 | 3/7 | 0/0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +17.0 | 69% |
| 2026-03-25 | @ MEM | 26 | 27.05 | -3.9% | 13 | 4/10 | 1/2 | 3/8 | 2/2 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +28.0 | 60% |
| 2026-03-23 | @ MIA | 22 | 28.7 | -23.4% | 3 | 1/4 | 1/1 | 0/3 | 1/1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +22.0 | 34% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS11.3%9/80 games
10+ REBOUNDS10.0%8/80 games
5+ ASSISTS2.5%2/80 games
2+ THREES60.0%48/80 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | SAS | 103 | 44.4 | #188 / 409 | 16.3M | Core |
| 2024–25 | SAS | 81 | 39.5 | #281 / 422 | 10.3M | Rotation |
| 2023–24 | SAS | 74 | 37.0 | #303 / 409 | 8.3M | Depth |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER44.4descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#188of 409 ranked
PH$16.3MCore
SAMPLE103observed games
Ball security89
Box defence33
Creation25
Efficiency62
Rebounding34
Scoring28
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE-19.0 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct
AF MOVEMENT+20.7 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGEEXPANDING+4.6 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY27-0.1 pp next-game What If impact
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
SAS
San Antonio Spurs
EXPECTED MIN27.7
SCORING SHARE9.1%
CREATION SHARE5.9%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR87.6%
With/without sample did not qualify for publication.