CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE

Branden Carlson

Portland Trail Blazers current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.

Portland Trail Blazers · current teamCUtah

AF-PLAYER50.62025–26

NBA RANK#102of 409

PH$13MRotation · fictional game currency

STATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status

EXPECTED MINWithheldonly when supported

NEXT GAMEvs Phoenix Suns2026-10-21 WHAT IF IMPACTWithheldteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual

REGULAR-SEASON GAMES68

Player-safe accepted corpus.

CAREER PPG · CORPUS4.4

2019–20 through 2025–26 window.

CAREER RPG · CORPUS2.2

Historical window, not full NBA career.

CAREER APG · CORPUS0.5

Historical window, not full NBA career.

LATEST COMPLETED SEASON

2025–26

39 games

MIN10.5

PTS5.0

REB2.6

AST0.6

STL0.1

BLK0.5

3PM0.6

FG%54.0%

3P%34.8%

FT%50.0%

+/-+0.5

NEXT GAME

Current context

2026–27 · Portland Trail Blazers

Assigned schedule

NBA Official roster

2026-10-21 · HOMEvs Phoenix Suns55.3% winProjected 111–114

2026-10-23 · AWAY@ Sacramento Kings54.2% winProjected 114–114

2026-10-27 · AWAY@ Los Angeles Lakers36.7% winProjected 111–115

2026-10-29 · HOMEvs Memphis Grizzlies64.5% winProjected 112–115

2026-10-31 · AWAY@ Utah Jazz56.6% winProjected 114–114

E66 · PLAYER PROJECTION

Loading next-game projection…

PTS / REB / AST / 3PM use a separately validated player-stat model. Game Win, projected team score, Form and milestones keep their own authorities.

Current team Open Player What If

MINUTES + FORM

Role-adjusted performance

CURRENT FORM · 2026–27

Waiting for completed player boxscores

PRESEASON / NO SAMPLE

ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.

LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26

Historical Minutes Intelligence

DESCRIPTIVE · NOT CURRENT

Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.

LATEST ACTUAL0minutes

EXPECTED4.57pregame reference

DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown

LAST 5

ALL OBSERVED5 G3.8 PTS · 0.8 REB · 0.2 AST

ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G5 PTS · 1.4 REB · 0.8 AST

LAST 10

ALL OBSERVED10 G2.3 PTS · 0.8 REB · 0.2 AST

ROLE-CONSISTENT6 G4.5 PTS · 1.33 REB · 0.67 AST

creation→

efficiency→

minutes→

rebounding→

scoring→

STEADY historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.

SPLITS + EFFICIENCY

How the production is built

EFFICIENCY

Shooting, derived from the box score

CAREER · 68 GAMES

2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.

FIELD GOALS49.8%117/235

2-POINT68.2%75/110

3-POINT33.6%42/125

FREE THROW65.7%23/35

EFFECTIVE FG%58.7%

TRUE SHOOTING%59.7%

AST / TO1.67

PTS PER 3617rate, not projection

HOME / AWAY

Where the games were played

37 HOME · 31 AWAY

Split	G	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	STL	BLK
Home	37	9.68	4.3	2.11	0.51	0.62	0.16	0.57
Away	31	8.87	4.52	2.29	0.52	0.61	0.1	0.61
Home − Away	—	+0.8	-0.2	-0.2	-0.0	+0.0	+0.1	-0.0

Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.

CONSISTENCY

What the average hides

68 GAMES

Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.

Category	Floor	Median	Ceiling	Mean	Volatility
assists	0	0	1	0.51	high
minutes	2.4	7	16	9.31	high
points	0	3	8	4.4	high
rebounds	0	1.5	4	2.19	high

Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.

DOUBLE-DOUBLES

Observed frequency across the corpus

68 GAMES

DOUBLE-DOUBLES22.9% of games

TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games

10+ ASSISTS00.0%

10+ BLOCKS00.0%

Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.

GAME LOG · 2025–26

One log, the window you choose

10 games

Date	Opp	MIN	EXP MIN	MIN Δ	PTS	FG	2P	3P	FT	OR	DR	REB	AST	BLK	TOV	PF	+/-	TS%
2026-04-07	@ LAL	7	3.49	+100.7%	8	3/4	2/2	1/2	1/2	0	2	2	1	0	0	1	-1.0	82%
2026-04-05	vs UTA	8	2.48	+223.2%	11	5/6	4/4	1/2	0/0	1	1	2	0	1	0	0	-4.0	92%
2026-04-02	vs LAL	12	0.36	+3208%	4	2/3	2/3	0/0	0/1	0	4	4	1	2	2	2	-2.0	58%
2026-03-23	@ PHI	2	—	—	0	0/1	0/0	0/1	0/0	0	1	1	0	0	0	1	0.0	0%
2026-02-25	@ DET	4	0.79	+403.9%	4	2/4	2/2	0/2	0/0	3	1	4	2	0	1	0	+11.0	50%
2026-02-04	@ SAS	16	2.07	+672.2%	3	1/2	0/1	1/1	0/0	3	4	7	0	2	0	1	+10.0	75%
2026-01-27	vs NOP	6	5.01	+19.8%	2	1/2	1/1	0/1	0/0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	+2.0	50%
2026-01-23	vs IND	7	—	—	2	1/3	1/3	0/0	0/0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	-12.0	33%
2026-01-21	@ MIL	16	—	—	9	4/8	3/5	1/3	0/0	1	5	6	1	1	0	0	+9.0	56%
2026-01-11	vs MIA	2	—	—	0	0/1	0/0	0/1	0/0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	-5.0	0%

All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.

HISTORY

Season and milestone evidence

DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26

How often did the threshold occur?

historical frequency

These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.

20+ POINTS0.0%0/39 games

10+ REBOUNDS2.6%1/39 games

5+ ASSISTS0.0%0/39 games

2+ THREES10.3%4/39 games

SEASON HISTORY

Regular-season production

accepted player-safe games

Season	Team(s)	G	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG%	3P%	FT%
2025–26	OKC	39	10.5	5.0	2.6	0.6	54.0%	34.8%	50.0%
2024–25	OKC	29	7.7	3.7	1.7	0.4	42.5%	32.2%	86.7%

CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY

Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.

governed identity

Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.

Open team profile

IMPACT

Rating and role context

AF-PLAYER

Measured production, 2025–26

#102 OF 409

AF-PLAYER50.6descriptive index, not a win probability

NBA RANK#102of 409 ranked

PH$13MRotation

SAMPLE39observed games

Ball security

Box defence

Creation

Efficiency

Rebounding

Scoring

PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.

E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE

Distinct signals, side by side

descriptive · current role + historical rating

Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.

VALUE OVER ROLE—requires eligible AF-Player + governed role

AF MOVEMENT—two eligible completed seasons required

ROLE CHANGEUNAVAILABLEcomparison unavailable

STAR DEPENDENCY—governed What If sample unavailable

Player movement Opportunities Compare players

Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.

PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26

Pregame role and with/without context

descriptive · not causal

Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.

OKC

Oklahoma City Thunder

EXPECTED MIN5.2

SCORING SHARE3.5%

CREATION SHARE1.7%

PARTICIPATION PRIOR51.9%

With/without sample did not qualify for publication.