CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE

Jose Alvarado

New York Knicks current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.

New York Knicks · current teamGUSAGeorgia Tech

AF-PLAYER38.12025–26

NBA RANK#286of 409

PH$9.1MDepth · fictional game currency

STATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status

EXPECTED MIN16.9governed role

NEXT GAMEvs Philadelphia 76ers2026-10-20 WHAT IF IMPACT-0.5 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual

REGULAR-SEASON GAMES290

Player-safe accepted corpus.

CAREER PPG · CORPUS8.0

2019–20 through 2025–26 window.

CAREER RPG · CORPUS2.3

Historical window, not full NBA career.

CAREER APG · CORPUS3.1

Historical window, not full NBA career.

LATEST COMPLETED SEASON

2025–26

64 games

MIN19.8

PTS7.3

REB2.5

AST3.2

STL0.9

BLK0.1

3PM1.5

FG%41.3%

3P%35.7%

FT%74.4%

+/--0.4

NEXT GAME

Current context

2026–27 · New York Knicks

Assigned schedule

NBA Official roster

2026-10-20 · HOMEvs Philadelphia 76ers71.2% winProjected 109–116

2026-10-23 · AWAY@ Boston Celtics49.2% winProjected 111–112

2026-10-25 · HOMEvs Orlando Magic74.5% winProjected 109–115

2026-10-27 · HOMEvs Detroit Pistons65.8% winProjected 110–114

2026-10-28 · AWAY@ Chicago Bulls67.5% winProjected 115–112

E66 · PLAYER PROJECTION

Loading next-game projection…

PTS / REB / AST / 3PM use a separately validated player-stat model. Game Win, projected team score, Form and milestones keep their own authorities.

Current team Open Player What If

MINUTES + FORM

Role-adjusted performance

CURRENT FORM · 2026–27

Waiting for completed player boxscores

PRESEASON / NO SAMPLE

ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.

LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26

Historical Minutes Intelligence

DESCRIPTIVE · NOT CURRENT

Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.

LATEST ACTUAL34minutes

EXPECTED9.83pregame reference

DEVIATION+246%expanded minutes

LAST 5

ALL OBSERVED5 G5.6 PTS · 2 REB · 1.8 AST

ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G4.2 PTS · 1.2 REB · 3.2 AST

LAST 10

ALL OBSERVED10 G4.8 PTS · 1.5 REB · 1.6 AST

ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G7.5 PTS · 2.3 REB · 3.3 AST

creation↑

efficiency↓

minutes→

rebounding↓

scoring↓

COLD historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.

SPLITS + EFFICIENCY

How the production is built

EFFICIENCY

Shooting, derived from the box score

CAREER · 290 GAMES

2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.

FIELD GOALS41.3%847/2053

2-POINT48.9%448/917

3-POINT35.1%399/1136

FREE THROW75.3%223/296

EFFECTIVE FG%51.0%

TRUE SHOOTING%53.0%

AST / TO2.92

PTS PER 3614.43rate, not projection

HOME / AWAY

Where the games were played

143 HOME · 147 AWAY

Split	G	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	STL	BLK
Home	143	20.22	8.6	2.3	3.18	1.4	1.24	0.18
Away	147	19.64	7.39	2.27	3.11	1.35	1.01	0.18
Home − Away	—	+0.6	+1.2	+0.0	+0.1	+0.1	+0.2	0.0

Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.

CONSISTENCY

What the average hides

290 GAMES

Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.

Category	Floor	Median	Ceiling	Mean	Volatility
assists	1	3	5	3.14	high
minutes	14.3	20	26	19.92	medium
points	3	7	12	7.99	high
rebounds	1	2	3.2	2.29	high

Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.

DOUBLE-DOUBLES

Observed frequency across the corpus

290 GAMES

DOUBLE-DOUBLES31.0% of games

TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games

10+ ASSISTS31.0%

10+ BLOCKS00.0%

Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.

GAME LOG · 2025–26

One log, the window you choose

10 games

Date	Opp	MIN	EXP MIN	MIN Δ	PTS	FG	2P	3P	FT	OR	DR	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	+/-	TS%
2026-04-12	vs CHA	34	9.83	+246%	16	6/16	2/7	4/9	0/0	2	3	5	7	2	1	1	2	-19.0	50%
2026-04-10	vs TOR	18	7.3	+146.4%	12	4/6	3/3	1/3	3/6	0	5	5	2	0	0	1	1	+14.0	69%
2026-03-31	@ HOU	12	11.71	+2.4%	12	5/6	3/4	2/2	0/0	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	2	+9.0	100%
2026-03-29	@ OKC	17	11.28	+50.7%	8	3/10	1/6	2/4	0/0	1	2	3	4	0	0	4	3	+6.0	40%
2026-03-26	@ CHA	5	12.69	-60.6%	0	0/2	0/2	0/0	0/0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	-4.0	0%
2026-03-24	vs NOP	9	12.88	-30.1%	0	0/0	0/0	0/0	0/0	1	0	1	1	0	0	1	2	-11.0	—
2026-03-22	vs WAS	16	11.69	+36.8%	8	3/7	1/3	2/4	0/0	0	2	2	8	1	0	0	1	+2.0	57%
2026-03-20	@ BKN	13	11.8	+10.2%	2	1/5	1/3	0/2	0/0	0	1	1	2	1	0	2	2	-11.0	20%
2026-03-15	vs GSW	15	11.74	+27.7%	4	2/3	2/3	0/0	0/0	0	1	1	4	0	0	0	1	-13.0	67%
2026-03-13	@ IND	13	12.51	+3.9%	0	0/0	0/0	0/0	0/0	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	2	-2.0	—

All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.

HISTORY

Season and milestone evidence

DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26

How often did the threshold occur?

historical frequency

These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.

20+ POINTS3.1%2/64 games

10+ REBOUNDS0.0%0/64 games

5+ ASSISTS23.4%15/64 games

2+ THREES42.2%27/64 games

SEASON HISTORY

Regular-season production

accepted player-safe games

Season	Team(s)	G	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG%	3P%	FT%
2025–26	NOP NYK	64	19.8	7.3	2.5	3.2	41.3%	35.7%	74.4%
2024–25	NOP	55	24.3	10.4	2.4	4.6	39.5%	36.3%	80.6%
2023–24	NOP	56	18.4	7.1	2.3	2.1	41.2%	37.7%	67.3%
2022–23	NOP	61	21.5	9.0	2.3	3.0	41.1%	33.6%	81.3%
2021–22	NOP	54	15.4	6.1	1.9	2.8	44.6%	29.1%	67.9%

AF-PLAYER HISTORY

Season by season

Season	Team	G	AF-Player	Rank	PH$	Band
2025–26	NYK	82	38.1	#286 / 409	9.1M	Depth
2024–25	NOP	55	42.7	#222 / 422	11.1M	Rotation
2023–24	NOP	62	38.6	#279 / 409	8.5M	Depth
2022–23	NOP	61	36.8	#295 / 408	8.1M	Depth
2021–22	NOP	84	44.5	#184 / 423	11.9M	Rotation

PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.

CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY

Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.

governed identity

Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.

Open team profile

IMPACT

Rating and role context

AF-PLAYER

Measured production, 2025–26

#286 OF 409

AF-PLAYER38.1descriptive index, not a win probability

NBA RANK#286of 409 ranked

PH$9.1MDepth

SAMPLE82observed games

Ball security

Box defence

Creation

Efficiency

Rebounding

Scoring

PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.

E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE

Distinct signals, side by side

descriptive · current role + historical rating

Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.

VALUE OVER ROLE+0.0 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct

AF MOVEMENT-17.4 pp2024–25 → 2025–26

ROLE CHANGESTABLE-0.6 min vs latest observed MPG

STAR DEPENDENCY15-0.5 pp next-game What If impact

DECLINING

Player movement Opportunities Compare players

Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.

PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26

Pregame role and with/without context

descriptive · not causal

Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.

NOP

New Orleans Pelicans

EXPECTED MIN14.8

SCORING SHARE6.1%

CREATION SHARE12.3%

PARTICIPATION PRIOR67.5%

With/without sample did not qualify for publication.

NYK

New York Knicks

EXPECTED MIN12.6

SCORING SHARE5.5%

CREATION SHARE9.9%

PARTICIPATION PRIOR81.1%

With/without sample did not qualify for publication.