Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Dorian Finney-Smith
Charlotte Hornets current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER20.52025–26
NBA RANK#408of 409
PH$5.3MDepth · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN8.8governed role
NEXT GAME@ Brooklyn Nets2026-10-21WHAT IF IMPACT-0.5 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN16.3
PTS3.0
REB2.4
AST1.0
STL0.4
BLK0.2
3PM0.7
FG%32.2%
3P%25.3%
FT%85.7%
+/--0.5
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Charlotte Hornets
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL0minutes
EXPECTED0.94pregame reference
DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G0 PTS · 0 REB · 0 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G2 PTS · 1.6 REB · 1 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G0.7 PTS · 0.2 REB · 0.1 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT9 G2.11 PTS · 2.56 REB · 0.78 AST
creation↑
efficiency→
minutes→
rebounding↓
scoring→
MIXED historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS44.2%1430/3235
2-POINT57.4%644/1123
3-POINT37.2%786/2112
FREE THROW71.7%279/389
EFFECTIVE FG%56.4%
TRUE SHOOTING%57.6%
AST / TO1.78
PTS PER 3610.91rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 226 | 29.57 | 8.94 | 4.77 | 1.66 | 1.85 | 0.82 | 0.5 |
| Away | 214 | 29.31 | 8.9 | 4.62 | 1.5 | 1.72 | 0.85 | 0.43 |
| Home − Away | — | +0.3 | +0.0 | +0.1 | +0.2 | +0.1 | -0.0 | +0.1 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1.58 | high |
| minutes | 24 | 30 | 35.4 | 29.44 | low |
| points | 4 | 8 | 13 | 8.92 | high |
| rebounds | 3 | 4 | 7 | 4.7 | high |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES92.1% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS00.0%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-03 | vs UTA | 9 | 4.9 | +83.7% | 7 | 3/4 | 2/2 | 1/2 | 0/0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +9.0 | 88% |
| 2026-03-25 | @ MIN | 6 | 12.71 | -52.8% | 0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -5.0 | — |
| 2026-03-23 | @ CHI | 8 | 14.82 | -46% | 0 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.0 | 0% |
| 2026-03-21 | vs MIA | 14 | 13.17 | +6.3% | 1 | 0/2 | 0/0 | 0/2 | 1/2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +9.0 | 17% |
| 2026-03-18 | vs LAL | 10 | 17.23 | -41.9% | 3 | 1/3 | 0/0 | 1/3 | 0/0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -13.0 | 50% |
| 2026-03-16 | vs LAL | 24 | 17.21 | +39.5% | 8 | 3/7 | 1/2 | 2/5 | 0/0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +11.0 | 57% |
| 2026-03-13 | vs NOP | 27 | 13.44 | +100.9% | 0 | 0/3 | 0/0 | 0/3 | 0/0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +5.0 | 0% |
| 2026-03-10 | vs TOR | 21 | 14.35 | +46.3% | 3 | 1/3 | 0/1 | 1/2 | 0/0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +14.0 | 50% |
| 2026-03-08 | @ SAS | 21 | 11.72 | +79.1% | 8 | 3/4 | 1/1 | 2/3 | 0/0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -9.0 | 100% |
| 2026-03-06 | vs POR | 25 | 10.73 | +133% | 5 | 2/4 | 1/1 | 1/3 | 0/0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3.0 | 63% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS0.0%0/34 games
10+ REBOUNDS0.0%0/34 games
5+ ASSISTS0.0%0/34 games
2+ THREES11.8%4/34 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
| Season | Team(s) | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3P% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | HOU | 34 | 16.3 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 32.2% | 25.3% | 85.7% |
| 2024–25 | BKNLAL | 62 | 28.9 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 45.0% | 41.3% | 66.7% |
| 2023–24 | BKN | 67 | 28.6 | 8.6 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 42.1% | 34.8% | 71.7% |
| 2022–23 | BKNDAL | 66 | 30.4 | 8.3 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 39.1% | 33.7% | 76.3% |
| 2021–22 | DAL | 80 | 33.0 | 11.0 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 47.1% | 39.5% | 67.5% |
| 2020–21 | DAL | 60 | 32.0 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 47.2% | 39.4% | 75.6% |
| 2019–20 | DAL | 71 | 29.9 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 46.6% | 37.6% | 72.2% |
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | HOU | 38 | 20.5 | #408 / 409 | 5.3M | Depth |
| 2024–25 | LAL | 67 | 37.0 | #313 / 422 | 9.3M | Depth |
| 2023–24 | BKN | 67 | 33.0 | #354 / 409 | 7.5M | Depth |
| 2022–23 | BKN | 70 | 27.2 | #388 / 408 | 6.8M | Depth |
| 2021–22 | DAL | 98 | 41.4 | #237 / 423 | 14.2M | Rotation |
| 2020–21 | DAL | 68 | 40.8 | #252 / 410 | 12.3M | Rotation |
| 2019–20 | DAL | 77 | 41.2 | #210 / 385 | 13.9M | Rotation |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER20.5descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#408of 409 ranked
PH$5.3MDepth
SAMPLE38observed games
Ball security40
Box defence25
Creation24
Efficiency12
Rebounding33
Scoring12
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE-14.3 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct
AF MOVEMENT-25.6 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGECONTRACTING-7.1 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY5-0.5 pp next-game What If impact
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
HOU
Houston Rockets
EXPECTED MIN11.0
SCORING SHARE2.6%
CREATION SHARE4.2%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR64.1%
With/without sample did not qualify for publication.