CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE

Trey Lyles

Minnesota Timberwolves current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.

Minnesota Timberwolves · current teamFCanadaKentucky

AF-PLAYER37.62024–25

NBA RANK#302of 422

PH$8.4MDepth · fictional game currency

STATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status

EXPECTED MIN22.4governed role

NEXT GAME@ Miami Heat2026-10-21 WHAT IF IMPACT-0.1 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual

REGULAR-SEASON GAMES361

Player-safe accepted corpus.

CAREER PPG · CORPUS7.5

2019–20 through 2025–26 window.

CAREER RPG · CORPUS4.7

Historical window, not full NBA career.

CAREER APG · CORPUS1.1

Historical window, not full NBA career.

LATEST COMPLETED SEASON

2024–25

68 games

MIN19.5

PTS6.5

REB4.6

AST1.2

STL0.6

BLK0.3

3PM1.1

FG%41.5%

3P%33.3%

FT%70.5%

+/--1.2

NEXT GAME

Current context

2026–27 · Minnesota Timberwolves

Assigned schedule

NBA Official roster

2026-10-21 · AWAY@ Miami Heat43.6% winProjected 113–116

2026-10-23 · AWAY@ Orlando Magic47.5% winProjected 112–114

2026-10-25 · HOMEvs Toronto Raptors59.1% winProjected 112–114

2026-10-26 · AWAY@ Cleveland Cavaliers40.7% winProjected 112–115

2026-10-28 · HOMEvs Golden State Warriors60.0% winProjected 112–115

E66 · PLAYER PROJECTION

Loading next-game projection…

PTS / REB / AST / 3PM use a separately validated player-stat model. Game Win, projected team score, Form and milestones keep their own authorities.

Current team Open Player What If

MINUTES + FORM

Role-adjusted performance

CURRENT FORM · 2026–27

Waiting for completed player boxscores

PRESEASON / NO SAMPLE

ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.

LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2024–25

Historical Minutes Intelligence

DESCRIPTIVE · NOT CURRENT

Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.

LATEST ACTUAL25minutes

EXPECTED29pregame reference

DEVIATION-13.8%role consistent

LAST 5

ALL OBSERVED5 G10.2 PTS · 6.4 REB · 1.4 AST

ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G6.6 PTS · 3 REB · 0.8 AST

LAST 10

ALL OBSERVED10 G6.2 PTS · 4.4 REB · 0.9 AST

ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G4.9 PTS · 2.8 REB · 0.9 AST

creation↓

efficiency→

minutes→

rebounding↓

scoring→

MIXED historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.

SPLITS + EFFICIENCY

How the production is built

EFFICIENCY

Shooting, derived from the box score

CAREER · 361 GAMES

2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.

FIELD GOALS45.0%941/2092

2-POINT55.6%546/982

3-POINT35.6%395/1110

FREE THROW76.8%448/583

EFFECTIVE FG%54.4%

TRUE SHOOTING%58.0%

AST / TO1.5

PTS PER 3614.22rate, not projection

HOME / AWAY

Where the games were played

176 HOME · 185 AWAY

Split	G	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	STL	BLK
Home	176	19.01	7.79	4.76	1.17	1.23	0.41	0.38
Away	185	19.21	7.32	4.64	0.99	0.96	0.4	0.36
Home − Away	—	-0.2	+0.5	+0.1	+0.2	+0.3	+0.0	+0.0

Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.

CONSISTENCY

What the average hides

361 GAMES

Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.

Category	Floor	Median	Ceiling	Mean	Volatility
assists	0	1	2	1.08	high
minutes	13	19	24.8	19.11	medium
points	3	7	12	7.55	high
rebounds	2	5	7	4.7	high

Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.

DOUBLE-DOUBLES

Observed frequency across the corpus

361 GAMES

DOUBLE-DOUBLES92.5% of games

TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games

10+ ASSISTS00.0%

10+ BLOCKS00.0%

Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.

GAME LOG · 2024–25

One log, the window you choose

10 games

Date	Opp	MIN	EXP MIN	MIN Δ	PTS	FG	2P	3P	FT	OR	DR	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	+/-	TS%
2025-04-13	vs PHX	25	29	-13.8%	11	4/10	2/3	2/7	1/1	0	2	2	1	1	0	0	0	+4.0	53%
2025-04-11	vs LAC	30	26.87	+11.6%	9	4/5	3/3	1/2	0/0	3	4	7	0	0	0	1	2	-2.0	90%
2025-04-09	vs DEN	38	24.59	+54.5%	17	6/9	4/6	2/3	3/3	2	7	9	4	0	0	1	2	-9.0	82%
2025-04-07	@ DET	38	21.27	+78.7%	7	3/8	2/3	1/5	0/2	4	2	6	1	0	1	2	1	+3.0	39%
2025-04-06	@ CLE	40	15.59	+156.7%	7	2/6	1/2	1/4	2/4	1	7	8	1	2	0	0	2	+15.0	45%
2025-04-02	@ WAS	18	13.81	+30.3%	1	0/3	0/1	0/2	1/2	2	2	4	1	1	0	1	1	-6.0	13%
2025-03-31	@ IND	15	14.8	+1.4%	3	1/2	0/0	1/2	0/0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	-4.0	75%
2025-03-29	@ ORL	25	14.24	+75.5%	4	1/4	1/1	0/3	2/2	0	7	7	1	1	1	1	2	-15.0	41%
2025-03-27	vs POR	14	16.01	-12.5%	3	1/3	0/0	1/3	0/0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	2	+4.0	50%
2025-03-24	vs BOS	9	18.39	-51.1%	0	0/1	0/0	0/1	0/0	1	3	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.0	0%

All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.

HISTORY

Season and milestone evidence

DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2024–25

How often did the threshold occur?

historical frequency

These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.

20+ POINTS2.9%2/68 games

10+ REBOUNDS2.9%2/68 games

5+ ASSISTS4.4%3/68 games

2+ THREES23.5%16/68 games

SEASON HISTORY

Regular-season production

accepted player-safe games

Season	Team(s)	G	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG%	3P%	FT%
2024–25	SAC	68	19.5	6.5	4.6	1.2	41.5%	33.3%	70.5%
2023–24	SAC	58	20.0	7.2	4.4	1.2	44.5%	38.4%	70.0%
2022–23	SAC	74	16.9	7.6	4.0	0.9	46.0%	36.3%	81.5%
2021–22	DET SAC	75	20.5	10.5	5.0	1.2	46.6%	32.1%	80.3%
2020–21	SAS	23	15.6	5.0	3.7	0.6	47.8%	35.0%	65.2%
2019–20	SAS	63	20.2	6.4	5.7	1.1	44.6%	38.7%	73.3%

AF-PLAYER HISTORY

Season by season

Season	Team	G	AF-Player	Rank	PH$	Band
2024–25	SAC	69	37.6	#302 / 422	8.4M	Depth
2023–24	SAC	60	42.1	#215 / 409	10.9M	Rotation
2022–23	SAC	81	44.7	#181 / 408	12.4M	Rotation
2021–22	SAC	76	48.7	#120 / 423	16.8M	Core
2020–21	SAS	44	41.4	#234 / 410	7.9M	Depth
2019–20	SAS	63	40.2	#222 / 385	10.3M	Rotation

PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.

CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY

Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.

governed identity

Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.

Open team profile

IMPACT

Rating and role context

AF-PLAYER

Measured production, 2024–25

#302 OF 422

AF-PLAYER37.6descriptive index, not a win probability

NBA RANK#302of 422 ranked

PH$8.4MDepth

SAMPLE69observed games

Ball security

Box defence

Creation

Efficiency

Rebounding

Scoring

PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.

E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE

Distinct signals, side by side

descriptive · current role + historical rating

Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.

VALUE OVER ROLE—requires eligible AF-Player + governed role

AF MOVEMENT—two eligible completed seasons required

ROLE CHANGEUNAVAILABLEcomparison unavailable

STAR DEPENDENCY—governed What If sample unavailable

Player movement Opportunities Compare players

Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.

PLAYER IMPACT · 2024–25

Pregame role and with/without context

descriptive · not causal

Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.

SAC

Sacramento Kings

EXPECTED MIN15.6

SCORING SHARE5.3%

CREATION SHARE4.4%

PARTICIPATION PRIOR75.8%

With/without sample did not qualify for publication.