Player-safe accepted corpus.
PLAYER PROFILE · HISTORICAL
Paul Watson
Accepted historical regular-season production. No current 2026–27 roster status is inferred.
AF-PLAYERPendingsample gate
NBA RANK—not ranked
PH$—pending · how PH$ worksSTATUSHistoricalno current binding
EXPECTED MINWithheldonly when supported
NEXT GAMENo assigned gameSchedule pendingWHAT IF IMPACTWithheldteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2021–22
MIN17.4
PTS3.4
REB3.0
AST0.9
STL0.3
BLK0.3
3PM0.7
FG%34.3%
3P%23.1%
FT%50.0%
+/--6.2
NEXT GAME
Current context
No current roster binding is published for this historical profile. ProbHoops does not infer a current team, availability or expected minutes from historical data.
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
Current form is unavailable because this historical profile is not bound to the governed 2026–27 roster. No current role is inferred.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2021–22
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL0minutes
EXPECTED—pregame reference
DEVIATION—expected minutes unavailable
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G0 PTS · 0 REB · 0 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT0 G— PTS · — REB · — AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G0 PTS · 0 REB · 0 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT0 G— PTS · — REB · — AST
creation—
efficiency—
minutes—
rebounding—
scoring—
Form label withheld: insufficient role-consistent sample. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS42.0%60/143
2-POINT48.8%20/41
3-POINT39.2%40/102
FREE THROW68.4%13/19
EFFECTIVE FG%55.9%
TRUE SHOOTING%57.1%
AST / TO2.06
PTS PER 3611.53rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 24 | 10.37 | 4.21 | 2.04 | 0.71 | 1.08 | 0.17 | 0.12 |
| Away | 22 | 13.24 | 3.27 | 1.82 | 0.73 | 0.64 | 0.41 | 0.18 |
| Home − Away | — | -2.9 | +0.9 | +0.2 | -0.0 | +0.4 | -0.2 | -0.1 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.72 | high |
| minutes | 2.8 | 5.7 | 21.5 | 11.74 | high |
| points | 0 | 3 | 6 | 3.76 | high |
| rebounds | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1.93 | high |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS00.0%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2021–22
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-01-07 | vs MIN | 4.5 | 12.36 | -63.9% | 6 | 2/3 | 0/0 | 2/3 | 0/0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +11.0 | 100% |
| 2021-12-31 | vs NYK | 14.3 | 9.86 | +44.9% | 2 | 1/3 | 1/2 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5.0 | 33% |
| 2021-12-29 | @ PHX | 36.8 | 4.04 | +811.7% | 11 | 5/9 | 4/4 | 1/5 | 0/0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -15.0 | 61% |
| 2021-12-28 | @ SAC | 22.3 | 0.29 | +7549% | 5 | 2/5 | 1/1 | 1/4 | 0/0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -5.0 | 50% |
| 2021-12-10 | vs LAL | 4.6 | 12.39 | -62.6% | 0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.0 | — |
| 2021-12-08 | @ TOR | 2.8 | 12.14 | -76.7% | 0 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -5.0 | 0% |
| 2021-12-02 | @ MEM | 32.1 | — | — | 4 | 1/8 | 0/2 | 1/6 | 1/2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -40.0 | 23% |
| 2021-12-01 | vs HOU | 18.6 | — | — | 3 | 1/2 | 0/0 | 1/2 | 0/0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3.0 | 75% |
| 2021-11-29 | @ HOU | 20.1 | — | — | 0 | 0/4 | 0/0 | 0/4 | 0/0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +6.0 | 0% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2021–22
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS0.0%0/9 games
10+ REBOUNDS0.0%0/9 games
5+ ASSISTS0.0%0/9 games
2+ THREES11.1%1/9 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
No current roster binding for this historical profile
This historical profile is not currently bound to the NBA Official 2026–27 roster product. ProbHoops does not infer a current team from historical data.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2021–22
ProbHoops has observed 31 games of this player in 2021–22 — below the sample floor required to rank. He carries no AF-Player and no PH$. Pending means not enough observation, never a low score.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2021–22
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
OKC
Oklahoma City Thunder
EXPECTED MIN6.3
SCORING SHARE2.5%
CREATION SHARE4.8%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR37.6%
With/without sample did not qualify for publication.