Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Jordan McLaughlin
San Antonio Spurs current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER39.62025–26
NBA RANK#258of 409
PH$7.2MDepth · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN0.0governed role
NEXT GAMEvs Oklahoma City Thunder2026-10-20WHAT IF IMPACTWithheldteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN6.4
PTS2.0
REB0.7
AST0.9
STL0.4
BLK0.1
3PM0.4
FG%41.6%
3P%41.0%
FT%85.7%
+/--1.4
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · San Antonio Spurs
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL2minutes
EXPECTED3.71pregame reference
DEVIATION-46.2%low minutes deviation
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G0.8 PTS · 0.6 REB · 0.2 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G1.6 PTS · 0.4 REB · 0.8 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G1 PTS · 0.4 REB · 0.3 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT9 G2.44 PTS · 0.33 REB · 0.67 AST
creation↑
efficiency→
minutes→
rebounding↑
scoring↓
MIXED historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS44.3%469/1059
2-POINT50.4%279/554
3-POINT37.6%190/505
FREE THROW74.7%130/174
EFFECTIVE FG%53.3%
TRUE SHOOTING%55.4%
AST / TO4.14
PTS PER 3610.46rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 165 | 13.41 | 3.96 | 1.45 | 2.64 | 0.58 | 0.72 | 0.12 |
| Away | 165 | 12.82 | 3.67 | 1.25 | 2.48 | 0.57 | 0.76 | 0.09 |
| Home − Away | — | +0.6 | +0.3 | +0.2 | +0.2 | +0.0 | -0.0 | +0.0 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2.56 | high |
| minutes | 5 | 13.8 | 19.7 | 13.11 | high |
| points | 0 | 3 | 6 | 3.81 | high |
| rebounds | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1.35 | high |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES30.9% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS51.5%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | vs DEN | 2 | 3.71 | -46.2% | 2 | 1/1 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +5.0 | 100% |
| 2026-04-08 | vs POR | 9 | 2.65 | +239.5% | 2 | 0/1 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 2/2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +9.0 | 53% |
| 2026-04-02 | @ LAC | 4 | 5.42 | -26.3% | 2 | 1/2 | 1/2 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2.0 | 50% |
| 2026-03-28 | @ MIL | 5 | 8.84 | -43.4% | 2 | 1/1 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -3.0 | 100% |
| 2026-03-25 | @ MEM | 15 | 7.69 | +95.1% | 2 | 1/3 | 1/1 | 0/2 | 0/0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -13.0 | 33% |
| 2026-03-23 | @ MIA | 3 | 7.23 | -58.5% | 0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -5.0 | — |
| 2026-03-21 | vs IND | 18 | 4.76 | +277.9% | 6 | 2/4 | 0/1 | 2/3 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +4.0 | 75% |
| 2026-03-19 | vs PHX | 10 | 3.41 | +192.9% | 0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +6.0 | — |
| 2026-03-17 | @ SAC | 5 | 3.33 | +50.2% | 3 | 1/2 | 0/1 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1.0 | 75% |
| 2026-03-16 | @ LAC | 10 | 1.73 | +477.7% | 3 | 1/2 | 0/1 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +11.0 | 75% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS0.0%0/43 games
10+ REBOUNDS0.0%0/43 games
5+ ASSISTS2.3%1/43 games
2+ THREES4.7%2/43 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
| Season | Team(s) | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3P% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | SAS | 43 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 41.6% | 41.0% | 85.7% |
| 2024–25 | SASSAC | 45 | 7.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 43.1% | 41.3% | 77.3% |
| 2023–24 | MIN | 56 | 11.2 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 48.3% | 47.2% | 72.2% |
| 2022–23 | MIN | 43 | 15.8 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 3.4 | 42.1% | 30.8% | 83.3% |
| 2021–22 | MIN | 62 | 14.5 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 2.9 | 44.0% | 31.8% | 75.0% |
| 2020–21 | MIN | 51 | 18.4 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 3.8 | 41.3% | 35.9% | 76.7% |
| 2019–20 | MIN | 30 | 19.7 | 7.6 | 1.6 | 4.2 | 48.9% | 38.2% | 66.7% |
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | SAS | 52 | 39.6 | #258 / 409 | 7.2M | Depth |
| 2024–25 | SAS | 46 | 45.9 | #180 / 422 | 9.6M | Depth |
| 2023–24 | MIN | 62 | 50.9 | #105 / 409 | 14.2M | Rotation |
| 2022–23 | MIN | 47 | 31.7 | #358 / 408 | 5.9M | Depth |
| 2021–22 | MIN | 84 | 43.9 | #193 / 423 | 11.6M | Rotation |
| 2020–21 | MIN | 54 | 37.1 | #309 / 410 | 7.2M | Depth |
| 2019–20 | MIN | 33 | 51.3 | #80 / 385 | 14.9M | Rotation |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER39.6descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#258of 409 ranked
PH$7.2MDepth
SAMPLE52observed games
Ball security48
Box defence49
Creation66
Efficiency40
Rebounding18
Scoring21
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE—requires eligible AF-Player + governed role
AF MOVEMENT-20.5 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGECONTRACTING-6.2 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY—governed What If sample unavailable
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
SAS
San Antonio Spurs
EXPECTED MIN3.6
SCORING SHARE1.8%
CREATION SHARE3.5%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR56.3%
With/without sample did not qualify for publication.