Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Zach Collins
Chicago Bulls current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER51.42024–25
NBA RANK#109of 422
PH$15.1MCore · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN5.4governed role
NEXT GAME@ Toronto Raptors2026-10-21WHAT IF IMPACT-1.3 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN18.4
PTS9.7
REB5.6
AST1.5
STL0.2
BLK0.4
3PM0.9
FG%57.8%
3P%42.9%
FT%70.0%
+/-+1.8
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Chicago Bulls
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL0minutes
EXPECTED1.25pregame reference
DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G0 PTS · 0 REB · 0 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G11.6 PTS · 5.2 REB · 1.8 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G0 PTS · 0 REB · 0 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT7 G11 PTS · 5.43 REB · 1.71 AST
creation→
efficiency→
minutes→
rebounding→
scoring→
STEADY historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS50.2%874/1740
2-POINT57.0%700/1228
3-POINT34.0%174/512
FREE THROW77.9%367/471
EFFECTIVE FG%55.2%
TRUE SHOOTING%58.8%
AST / TO1.47
PTS PER 3616.82rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 125 | 20.42 | 9.68 | 5.7 | 2.42 | 0.7 | 0.52 | 0.74 |
| Away | 118 | 19.88 | 9.14 | 5.19 | 2.3 | 0.73 | 0.47 | 0.58 |
| Home − Away | — | +0.5 | +0.5 | +0.5 | +0.1 | -0.0 | +0.1 | +0.2 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2.36 | high |
| minutes | 15 | 19 | 27 | 20.16 | medium |
| points | 4 | 9 | 14 | 9.42 | high |
| rebounds | 3 | 5 | 8 | 5.45 | high |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES187.4% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS00.0%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-27 | vs MIL | 24 | 17.46 | +37.4% | 10 | 5/9 | 5/8 | 0/1 | 0/1 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.0 | 53% |
| 2025-12-26 | vs PHI | 19 | 16.43 | +15.6% | 15 | 5/8 | 3/5 | 2/3 | 3/3 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +6.0 | 81% |
| 2025-12-23 | @ ATL | 18 | 16.45 | +9.4% | 10 | 5/9 | 5/7 | 0/2 | 0/0 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2.0 | 56% |
| 2025-12-21 | @ ATL | 16 | 16.76 | -4.5% | 10 | 4/5 | 4/5 | 0/0 | 2/4 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -5.0 | 74% |
| 2025-12-19 | @ CLE | 19 | 16.79 | +13.1% | 13 | 4/5 | 1/2 | 3/3 | 2/2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +1.0 | 111% |
| 2025-12-17 | vs CLE | 16 | 16.74 | -4.4% | 10 | 4/8 | 3/4 | 1/4 | 1/3 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +4.0 | 54% |
| 2025-12-14 | vs NOP | 12 | 17.82 | -32.6% | 2 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 2/2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +2.0 | 53% |
| 2025-12-12 | @ CHA | 20 | 17.43 | +14.8% | 16 | 6/7 | 4/4 | 2/3 | 2/2 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +17.0 | 101% |
| 2025-12-07 | vs GSW | 19 | 17.09 | +11.2% | 3 | 1/7 | 1/5 | 0/2 | 1/1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 20% |
| 2025-12-05 | vs IND | 21 | — | — | 8 | 3/5 | 2/3 | 1/2 | 1/2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -5.0 | 68% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS0.0%0/10 games
10+ REBOUNDS10.0%1/10 games
5+ ASSISTS0.0%0/10 games
2+ THREES30.0%3/10 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024–25 | CHI | 63 | 51.4 | #109 / 422 | 15.1M | Core |
| 2023–24 | SAS | 69 | 46.9 | #152 / 409 | 14.4M | Rotation |
| 2022–23 | SAS | 63 | 51.2 | #84 / 408 | 17.8M | Core |
| 2021–22 | SAS | 30 | 51.3 | #95 / 423 | 14.5M | Rotation |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2024–25
AF-PLAYER51.4descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#109of 422 ranked
PH$15.1MCore
SAMPLE63observed games
Ball security22
Box defence45
Creation42
Efficiency64
Rebounding74
Scoring38
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE—requires eligible AF-Player + governed role
AF MOVEMENT—two eligible completed seasons required
ROLE CHANGEUNAVAILABLEcomparison unavailable
STAR DEPENDENCY—governed What If sample unavailable
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
CHI
Chicago Bulls
EXPECTED MIN12.1
SCORING SHARE7.6%
CREATION SHARE4.7%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR65.7%
With/without sample did not qualify for publication.