Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Pat Connaughton
Charlotte Hornets current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER35.62024–25
NBA RANK#337of 422
PH$6.3MDepth · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN6.6governed role
NEXT GAME@ Brooklyn Nets2026-10-21WHAT IF IMPACT-1.2 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN6.8
PTS2.5
REB1.4
AST0.4
STL0.2
BLK0.0
3PM0.5
FG%43.0%
3P%38.8%
FT%64.7%
+/--0.5
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Charlotte Hornets
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL0minutes
EXPECTED2.74pregame reference
DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G0 PTS · 0.6 REB · 0 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G1.6 PTS · 1 REB · 0.2 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G0.2 PTS · 0.6 REB · 0 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT6 G1.33 PTS · 1.67 REB · 0.17 AST
creation↑
efficiency→
minutes→
rebounding↓
scoring↑
MIXED historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS43.6%940/2156
2-POINT60.2%413/686
3-POINT35.9%527/1470
FREE THROW76.4%204/267
EFFECTIVE FG%55.8%
TRUE SHOOTING%57.4%
AST / TO2.52
PTS PER 3611.25rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 194 | 20.33 | 6.32 | 3.75 | 1.59 | 1.29 | 0.55 | 0.26 |
| Away | 219 | 20.14 | 6.32 | 3.78 | 1.26 | 1.26 | 0.51 | 0.26 |
| Home − Away | — | +0.2 | 0.0 | -0.0 | +0.3 | +0.0 | +0.0 | 0.0 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1.42 | high |
| minutes | 14 | 21 | 27.3 | 20.23 | medium |
| points | 2 | 6 | 10 | 6.32 | high |
| rebounds | 1 | 4 | 6 | 3.77 | high |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES20.5% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS00.0%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | vs DET | 4 | 2.86 | +39.8% | 0 | 0/1 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1.0 | 0% |
| 2026-04-07 | @ BOS | 2 | 2.61 | -23.3% | 0 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +3.0 | 0% |
| 2026-04-05 | @ MIN | 3 | 2.14 | +40.4% | 0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -6.0 | — |
| 2026-04-02 | vs PHX | 2 | 2.13 | -6% | 0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2.0 | — |
| 2026-03-31 | @ BKN | 4 | 2.04 | +95.7% | 2 | 1/1 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +3.0 | 100% |
| 2026-03-29 | vs BOS | 4 | 2.26 | +76.6% | 0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2.0 | — |
| 2026-03-21 | vs MEM | 3 | 4.75 | -36.8% | 0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3.0 | — |
| 2026-03-19 | vs ORL | 7 | 4.25 | +64.7% | 0 | 0/2 | 0/1 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -8.0 | 0% |
| 2026-03-17 | vs MIA | 2 | 4.67 | -57.2% | 4 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 1/1 | 1/2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +4.0 | 106% |
| 2026-03-11 | @ SAC | 8 | 5.27 | +51.8% | 0 | 0/2 | 0/1 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1.0 | 0% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS0.0%0/39 games
10+ REBOUNDS0.0%0/39 games
5+ ASSISTS0.0%0/39 games
2+ THREES12.8%5/39 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
| Season | Team(s) | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3P% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | CHA | 39 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 43.0% | 38.8% | 64.7% |
| 2024–25 | MIL | 39 | 14.1 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 45.5% | 30.9% | 81.8% |
| 2023–24 | MIL | 76 | 22.0 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 43.5% | 34.4% | 75.9% |
| 2022–23 | MIL | 61 | 23.7 | 7.6 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 39.2% | 33.9% | 65.8% |
| 2021–22 | MIL | 63 | 25.8 | 9.9 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 46.0% | 39.5% | 85.7% |
| 2020–21 | MIL | 68 | 22.8 | 6.8 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 43.4% | 37.0% | 77.5% |
| 2019–20 | MIL | 67 | 18.6 | 5.4 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 45.5% | 33.1% | 77.5% |
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024–25 | MIL | 43 | 35.6 | #337 / 422 | 6.3M | Depth |
| 2023–24 | MIL | 82 | 36.8 | #310 / 409 | 8.6M | Depth |
| 2022–23 | MIL | 65 | 36.1 | #301 / 408 | 8.3M | Depth |
| 2021–22 | MIL | 76 | 46.1 | #159 / 423 | 16M | Core |
| 2020–21 | MIL | 91 | 41.1 | #244 / 410 | 12.4M | Rotation |
| 2019–20 | MIL | 80 | 38.0 | #256 / 385 | 9.4M | Depth |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2024–25
AF-PLAYER35.6descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#337of 422 ranked
PH$6.3MDepth
SAMPLE43observed games
Ball security56
Box defence23
Creation55
Efficiency33
Rebounding30
Scoring22
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE—requires eligible AF-Player + governed role
AF MOVEMENT—two eligible completed seasons required
ROLE CHANGEUNAVAILABLEcomparison unavailable
STAR DEPENDENCY—governed What If sample unavailable
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
CHA
Charlotte Hornets
EXPECTED MIN3.4
SCORING SHARE2.3%
CREATION SHARE1.9%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR50.4%
With/without sample did not qualify for publication.