CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE

Damian Lillard

Portland Trail Blazers current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.

Portland Trail Blazers · current teamGUSAWeber State

AF-PLAYER61.52024–25

NBA RANK#24of 422

PH$25.7MHigh Value · fictional game currency

STATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status

EXPECTED MIN0.0governed role

NEXT GAMEvs Phoenix Suns2026-10-21 WHAT IF IMPACTWithheldteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual

REGULAR-SEASON GAMES351

Player-safe accepted corpus.

CAREER PPG · CORPUS27.6

2019–20 through 2025–26 window.

CAREER RPG · CORPUS4.4

Historical window, not full NBA career.

CAREER APG · CORPUS7.4

Historical window, not full NBA career.

LATEST COMPLETED SEASON

2024–25

58 games

MIN36.1

PTS24.9

REB4.7

AST7.1

STL1.2

BLK0.2

3PM3.4

FG%44.8%

3P%37.6%

FT%92.1%

+/-+0.9

NEXT GAME

Current context

2026–27 · Portland Trail Blazers

Assigned schedule

NBA Official roster

2026-10-21 · HOMEvs Phoenix Suns55.3% winProjected 111–114

2026-10-23 · AWAY@ Sacramento Kings54.2% winProjected 114–114

2026-10-27 · AWAY@ Los Angeles Lakers36.7% winProjected 111–115

2026-10-29 · HOMEvs Memphis Grizzlies64.5% winProjected 112–115

2026-10-31 · AWAY@ Utah Jazz56.6% winProjected 114–114

E66 · PLAYER PROJECTION

Loading next-game projection…

PTS / REB / AST / 3PM use a separately validated player-stat model. Game Win, projected team score, Form and milestones keep their own authorities.

Current team Open Player What If

MINUTES + FORM

Role-adjusted performance

CURRENT FORM · 2026–27

Waiting for completed player boxscores

PRESEASON / NO SAMPLE

ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.

LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2024–25

Historical Minutes Intelligence

DESCRIPTIVE · NOT CURRENT

Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.

LATEST ACTUAL0minutes

EXPECTED1.88pregame reference

DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown

LAST 5

ALL OBSERVED5 G0 PTS · 0 REB · 0 AST

ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G19.4 PTS · 4.6 REB · 7 AST

LAST 10

ALL OBSERVED10 G0 PTS · 0 REB · 0 AST

ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G22.5 PTS · 5.2 REB · 6.2 AST

creation→

efficiency↓

minutes→

rebounding→

scoring↓

MIXED historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.

SPLITS + EFFICIENCY

How the production is built

EFFICIENCY

Shooting, derived from the box score

CAREER · 351 GAMES

2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.

FIELD GOALS44.6%2989/6706

2-POINT52.2%1691/3240

3-POINT37.5%1298/3466

FREE THROW91.1%2411/2646

EFFECTIVE FG%54.3%

TRUE SHOOTING%61.5%

AST / TO2.53

PTS PER 3627.43rate, not projection

HOME / AWAY

Where the games were played

187 HOME · 164 AWAY

Split	G	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	STL	BLK
Home	187	36.27	28.55	4.44	7.16	3.94	1.04	0.28
Away	164	36.17	26.51	4.41	7.63	3.42	0.9	0.27
Home − Away	—	+0.1	+2.0	+0.0	-0.5	+0.5	+0.1	+0.0

Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.

CONSISTENCY

What the average hides

351 GAMES

Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.

Category	Floor	Median	Ceiling	Mean	Volatility
assists	5	7	10	7.38	medium
minutes	33.6	37	39	36.22	low
points	20	27	35	27.6	medium
rebounds	3	4	6	4.43	medium

Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.

DOUBLE-DOUBLES

Observed frequency across the corpus

351 GAMES

DOUBLE-DOUBLES8524.2% of games

TRIPLE-DOUBLES41.1% of games

10+ ASSISTS8223.4%

10+ BLOCKS00.0%

Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.

GAME LOG · 2024–25

One log, the window you choose

10 games

Date	Opp	MIN	EXP MIN	MIN Δ	PTS	FG	2P	3P	FT	OR	DR	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	+/-	TS%
2025-03-18	@ GSW	38	34	+11.8%	16	6/18	4/9	2/9	2/4	0	3	3	4	1	1	2	2	-8.0	41%
2025-03-16	vs OKC	29	35.16	-17.5%	19	3/9	1/5	2/4	11/11	0	1	1	2	1	0	1	0	-15.0	69%
2025-03-15	vs IND	37	33.83	+9.4%	25	7/15	1/3	6/12	5/5	1	9	10	8	0	0	2	3	-10.0	73%
2025-03-13	vs LAL	34	32.97	+3.1%	22	6/14	4/6	2/8	8/8	0	6	6	10	2	0	0	0	+6.0	63%
2025-03-11	@ IND	37	32.65	+13.3%	15	4/14	2/7	2/7	5/6	0	3	3	11	0	0	3	1	+10.0	45%
2025-03-09	vs CLE	35	31.34	+11.7%	22	8/19	7/12	1/7	5/6	1	4	5	4	2	0	2	2	-8.0	51%
2025-03-08	vs ORL	36	31.41	+14.6%	26	9/18	5/9	4/9	4/4	0	7	7	4	1	0	4	4	-19.0	66%
2025-03-05	vs DAL	27	33.93	-20.4%	34	11/15	6/7	5/8	7/7	0	3	3	5	2	0	2	0	+28.0	94%
2025-03-04	@ ATL	36	29.43	+22.3%	23	9/18	7/8	2/10	3/3	0	5	5	4	2	0	1	2	+10.0	60%
2025-03-01	@ DAL	36	28.53	+26.2%	28	8/17	4/5	4/12	8/8	0	6	6	6	2	0	3	1	+22.0	68%

All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.

HISTORY

Season and milestone evidence

DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2024–25

How often did the threshold occur?

historical frequency

These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.

20+ POINTS77.6%45/58 games

10+ REBOUNDS3.5%2/58 games

5+ ASSISTS77.6%45/58 games

2+ THREES87.9%51/58 games

SEASON HISTORY

Regular-season production

accepted player-safe games

Season	Team(s)	G	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG%	3P%	FT%
2024–25	MIL	58	36.1	24.9	4.7	7.1	44.8%	37.6%	92.1%
2023–24	MIL	73	35.3	24.3	4.4	7.0	42.4%	35.4%	92.0%
2022–23	POR	58	36.4	32.2	4.8	7.3	46.3%	37.1%	91.4%
2021–22	POR	29	36.4	24.0	4.1	7.3	40.2%	32.4%	87.8%
2020–21	POR	67	35.8	28.8	4.2	7.5	45.1%	39.1%	92.7%
2019–20	POR	66	37.5	30.0	4.3	8.0	46.3%	40.1%	88.8%

AF-PLAYER HISTORY

Season by season

Season	Team	G	AF-Player	Rank	PH$	Band
2024–25	MIL	62	61.5	#24 / 422	25.7M	High Value
2023–24	MIL	77	58.3	#36 / 409	26M	High Value
2022–23	POR	58	64.3	#9 / 408	25.3M	High Value
2021–22	POR	29	52.7	#79 / 423	17.5M	Core
2020–21	POR	73	65.0	#10 / 410	28.8M	High Value
2019–20	POR	71	65.6	#7 / 385	29M	High Value

PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.

CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY

Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.

governed identity

Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.

Open team profile

IMPACT

Rating and role context

AF-PLAYER

Measured production, 2024–25

#24 OF 422

AF-PLAYER61.5descriptive index, not a win probability

NBA RANK#24of 422 ranked

PH$25.7MHigh Value

SAMPLE62observed games

Ball security

Box defence

Creation

Efficiency

Rebounding

Scoring

PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.

E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE

Distinct signals, side by side

descriptive · current role + historical rating

Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.

VALUE OVER ROLE—requires eligible AF-Player + governed role

AF MOVEMENT—two eligible completed seasons required

ROLE CHANGEUNAVAILABLEcomparison unavailable

STAR DEPENDENCY—governed What If sample unavailable

Player movement Opportunities Compare players

Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.

PLAYER IMPACT · 2024–25

Pregame role and with/without context

descriptive · not causal

Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.

MIL

Milwaukee Bucks

EXPECTED MIN27.6

SCORING SHARE21.6%

CREATION SHARE27.9%

PARTICIPATION PRIOR71.3%

-0.88 residual margin pts in the qualified normal-load vs nonparticipation diagnostic · 29 normal-load / 8 nonparticipation games.