Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Tolu Smith
Detroit Pistons current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYERPendingsample gate
NBA RANK—not ranked
PH$—pending · how PH$ worksSTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN5.1governed role
NEXT GAMEvs Boston Celtics2026-10-20WHAT IF IMPACT-0.3 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN10.6
PTS3.2
REB3.4
AST0.9
STL0.1
BLK0.5
3PM0.0
FG%41.7%
3P%—
FT%63.2%
+/-+0.8
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Detroit Pistons
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL0minutes
EXPECTED3.24pregame reference
DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G1.6 PTS · 0.6 REB · 0.2 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT0 G— PTS · — REB · — AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G1.2 PTS · 1 REB · 0.4 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT0 G— PTS · — REB · — AST
creation—
efficiency—
minutes—
rebounding—
scoring—
Form label withheld: insufficient role-consistent sample. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS41.7%10/24
2-POINT41.7%10/24
3-POINT—0/0
FREE THROW63.2%12/19
EFFECTIVE FG%41.7%
TRUE SHOOTING%49.4%
AST / TO1.8
PTS PER 3610.87rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
Not enough games on both sides to publish a split. ProbHoops requires at least 5 home and 5 away games; this player has 4 and 6.
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 0 | 1 | 1.2 | 0.9 | high |
| minutes | 2.8 | 9 | 18.2 | 10.6 | high |
| points | 0 | 2.5 | 4.8 | 3.2 | high |
| rebounds | 0.8 | 2 | 3.8 | 3.4 | high |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS00.0%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-06 | @ ORL | 13 | 3.78 | +243.9% | 8 | 3/5 | 3/5 | 0/0 | 2/4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +8.0 | 59% |
| 2026-03-30 | @ OKC | 19 | 1.53 | +1139.1% | 4 | 1/3 | 1/3 | 0/0 | 2/4 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1.0 | 42% |
| 2026-03-28 | @ MIN | 2 | 1.21 | +64.7% | 0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1.0 | — |
| 2026-03-20 | vs GSW | 4 | 0.61 | +554.1% | 2 | 1/1 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -6.0 | 100% |
| 2026-03-19 | @ WAS | 3 | — | — | 2 | 1/2 | 1/2 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1.0 | 50% |
| 2026-02-19 | @ NYK | 18 | 3.09 | +483.2% | 4 | 2/3 | 2/3 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | +1.0 | 67% |
| 2026-02-11 | @ TOR | 15 | — | — | 3 | 1/3 | 1/3 | 0/0 | 1/3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3.0 | 35% |
| 2026-01-10 | vs LAC | 26 | — | — | 9 | 1/7 | 1/7 | 0/0 | 7/8 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 43% |
| 2026-01-07 | vs CHI | 1 | — | — | 0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.0 | — |
| 2026-01-05 | vs NYK | 5 | — | — | 0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +5.0 | — |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS0.0%0/10 games
10+ REBOUNDS10.0%1/10 games
5+ ASSISTS0.0%0/10 games
2+ THREES0.0%0/10 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
| Season | Team(s) | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3P% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | DET | 10 | 10.6 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 41.7% | — | 63.2% |
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
ProbHoops has observed 13 games of this player in 2025–26 — below the sample floor required to rank. He carries no AF-Player and no PH$. Pending means not enough observation, never a low score.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE—requires eligible AF-Player + governed role
AF MOVEMENT—two eligible completed seasons required
ROLE CHANGEUNAVAILABLEcomparison unavailable
STAR DEPENDENCY—governed What If sample unavailable
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
DET
Detroit Pistons
EXPECTED MIN2.9
SCORING SHARE2.9%
CREATION SHARE3.2%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR35.3%
With/without sample did not qualify for publication.