Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Jayson Tatum
Boston Celtics current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER54.02025–26
NBA RANK#65of 409
PH$16.1MCore · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN0.0governed role
NEXT GAME@ Detroit Pistons2026-10-20WHAT IF IMPACTWithheldteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN32.7
PTS21.7
REB9.9
AST5.1
STL1.3
BLK0.2
3PM2.9
FG%40.6%
3P%31.9%
FT%82.7%
+/-+5.9
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Boston Celtics
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL0minutes
EXPECTED29.43pregame reference
DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G14 PTS · 6.2 REB · 3.8 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G23.2 PTS · 10.6 REB · 5.8 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G15.3 PTS · 6.6 REB · 4.3 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT7 G22.86 PTS · 8.71 REB · 4.71 AST
creation↑
efficiency→
minutes→
rebounding↑
scoring→
MIXED historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS45.7%4011/8778
2-POINT52.6%2648/5037
3-POINT36.4%1363/3741
FREE THROW84.0%2307/2748
EFFECTIVE FG%53.5%
TRUE SHOOTING%58.5%
AST / TO1.7
PTS PER 3626.85rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 216 | 35.71 | 26.8 | 8.03 | 4.58 | 3.05 | 1.06 | 0.59 |
| Away | 222 | 35.87 | 26.59 | 8.12 | 4.58 | 3.17 | 1.16 | 0.63 |
| Home − Away | — | -0.2 | +0.2 | -0.1 | 0.0 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.0 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 2 | 4 | 7 | 4.58 | high |
| minutes | 32 | 36.5 | 39 | 35.79 | low |
| points | 19.4 | 26 | 33 | 26.69 | medium |
| rebounds | 6 | 8 | 11 | 8.08 | medium |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES14232.4% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES51.1% of games
10+ ASSISTS153.4%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | @ NYK | 40 | 29.08 | +37.5% | 24 | 7/22 | 5/12 | 2/10 | 8/10 | 1 | 12 | 13 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 | -16.0 | 46% |
| 2026-04-07 | vs CHA | 39 | 28.51 | +36.8% | 23 | 8/15 | 5/8 | 3/7 | 4/5 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | +12.0 | 67% |
| 2026-04-05 | vs TOR | 34 | 28.58 | +19% | 23 | 7/15 | 5/9 | 2/6 | 7/8 | 0 | 13 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 3 | +13.0 | 62% |
| 2026-04-01 | @ MIA | 37 | 26.54 | +39.4% | 25 | 9/21 | 5/8 | 4/13 | 3/4 | 0 | 18 | 18 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +7.0 | 55% |
| 2026-03-29 | @ CHA | 31 | 31.14 | -0.4% | 32 | 12/23 | 7/13 | 5/10 | 3/5 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +15.0 | 64% |
| 2026-03-27 | vs ATL | 37 | 30.23 | +22.4% | 26 | 8/24 | 6/16 | 2/8 | 8/10 | 0 | 12 | 12 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1.0 | 46% |
| 2026-03-25 | vs OKC | 35 | 29.29 | +19.5% | 19 | 5/12 | 2/6 | 3/6 | 6/6 | 0 | 12 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | +2.0 | 65% |
| 2026-03-22 | vs MIN | 31 | 25.03 | +23.9% | 16 | 6/16 | 4/9 | 2/7 | 2/3 | 1 | 10 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -4.0 | 46% |
| 2026-03-20 | @ MEM | 31 | 24.03 | +29% | 13 | 3/15 | 1/6 | 2/9 | 5/6 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -5.0 | 37% |
| 2026-03-18 | vs GSW | 31 | 23.15 | +33.9% | 24 | 7/15 | 2/4 | 5/11 | 5/6 | 1 | 9 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | +18.0 | 68% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS73.3%11/15 games
10+ REBOUNDS60.0%9/15 games
5+ ASSISTS53.3%8/15 games
2+ THREES100.0%15/15 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
| Season | Team(s) | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3P% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | BOS | 15 | 32.7 | 21.7 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 40.6% | 31.9% | 82.7% |
| 2024–25 | BOS | 71 | 36.5 | 27.0 | 8.7 | 6.0 | 45.3% | 34.4% | 81.3% |
| 2023–24 | BOS | 73 | 35.8 | 26.8 | 8.1 | 4.9 | 47.0% | 37.8% | 83.3% |
| 2022–23 | BOS | 74 | 36.9 | 30.1 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 46.6% | 34.9% | 85.4% |
| 2021–22 | BOS | 76 | 35.9 | 26.9 | 8.0 | 4.4 | 45.3% | 35.3% | 85.3% |
| 2020–21 | BOS | 64 | 35.8 | 26.4 | 7.4 | 4.3 | 45.9% | 38.6% | 86.8% |
| 2019–20 | BOS | 65 | 34.3 | 23.5 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 44.9% | 40.7% | 81.2% |
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | BOS | 21 | 54.0 | #65 / 409 | 16.1M | Core |
| 2024–25 | BOS | 79 | 59.4 | #35 / 422 | 26.6M | High Value |
| 2023–24 | BOS | 92 | 59.9 | #27 / 409 | 27.7M | High Value |
| 2022–23 | BOS | 94 | 60.1 | #21 / 408 | 28.2M | High Value |
| 2021–22 | BOS | 99 | 55.6 | #49 / 423 | 26.1M | High Value |
| 2020–21 | BOS | 70 | 56.2 | #48 / 410 | 25.4M | High Value |
| 2019–20 | BOS | 82 | 53.9 | #58 / 385 | 24.9M | Core |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER54.0descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#65of 409 ranked
PH$16.1MCore
SAMPLE21observed games
Ball security66
Box defence39
Creation60
Efficiency42
Rebounding51
Scoring75
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE—requires eligible AF-Player + governed role
AF MOVEMENT-7.6 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGECONTRACTING-33.8 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY—governed What If sample unavailable
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
BOS
Boston Celtics
EXPECTED MIN26.8
SCORING SHARE18.5%
CREATION SHARE19.4%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR73.5%
With/without sample did not qualify for publication.