Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Dereck II Lively
Dallas Mavericks current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER60.62024–25
NBA RANK#30of 422
PH$19.1MCore · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN17.8governed role
NEXT GAME@ Houston Rockets2026-10-21WHAT IF IMPACT-1.0 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN16.4
PTS4.3
REB5.3
AST1.9
STL0.6
BLK1.6
3PM0.0
FG%61.1%
3P%—
FT%80.0%
+/-+2.0
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Dallas Mavericks
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL0minutes
EXPECTED0.83pregame reference
DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G0 PTS · 0 REB · 0 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT0 G— PTS · — REB · — AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G0 PTS · 0 REB · 0 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT0 G— PTS · — REB · — AST
creation—
efficiency—
minutes—
rebounding—
scoring—
Form label withheld: insufficient role-consistent sample. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS72.6%361/497
2-POINT72.9%361/495
3-POINT—0/2
FREE THROW57.9%95/164
EFFECTIVE FG%72.6%
TRUE SHOOTING%71.8%
AST / TO1.5
PTS PER 3613.34rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 53 | 23.08 | 8.42 | 6.72 | 1.62 | 0 | 0.53 | 1.55 |
| Away | 43 | 22.81 | 8.63 | 7.44 | 1.53 | 0 | 0.67 | 1.33 |
| Home − Away | — | +0.3 | -0.2 | -0.7 | +0.1 | 0.0 | -0.1 | +0.2 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1.58 | high |
| minutes | 17 | 23 | 29 | 22.96 | medium |
| points | 4 | 7 | 13 | 8.51 | high |
| rebounds | 4 | 6.5 | 11 | 7.04 | high |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES1616.7% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS00.0%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-21 | vs NOP | 18 | 7.73 | +132.9% | 4 | 1/1 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 2/2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | +8.0 | 106% |
| 2025-11-19 | vs NYK | 18 | 4.99 | +260.6% | 4 | 1/3 | 1/3 | 0/0 | 2/2 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +10.0 | 52% |
| 2025-11-16 | vs POR | 12 | 3.35 | +258.6% | 2 | 1/2 | 1/2 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -7.0 | 50% |
| 2025-11-14 | vs LAC | 17 | 1.12 | +1413.1% | 4 | 1/3 | 1/3 | 0/0 | 2/2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -12.0 | 52% |
| 2025-10-26 | vs TOR | 21 | 14.46 | +45.2% | 4 | 2/2 | 2/2 | 0/0 | 0/2 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 | +17.0 | 69% |
| 2025-10-24 | vs WAS | 19 | 10 | +90% | 8 | 4/5 | 4/5 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +3.0 | 80% |
| 2025-10-22 | vs SAS | 10 | — | — | 4 | 1/2 | 1/2 | 0/0 | 2/2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -5.0 | 69% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS0.0%0/7 games
10+ REBOUNDS14.3%1/7 games
5+ ASSISTS0.0%0/7 games
2+ THREES0.0%0/7 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024–25 | DAL | 36 | 60.6 | #30 / 422 | 19.1M | Core |
| 2023–24 | DAL | 76 | 56.7 | #47 / 409 | 21.5M | Core |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2024–25
AF-PLAYER60.6descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#30of 422 ranked
PH$19.1MCore
SAMPLE36observed games
Ball security29
Box defence58
Creation43
Efficiency87
Rebounding82
Scoring30
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE—requires eligible AF-Player + governed role
AF MOVEMENT—two eligible completed seasons required
ROLE CHANGEUNAVAILABLEcomparison unavailable
STAR DEPENDENCY—governed What If sample unavailable
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
DAL
Dallas Mavericks
EXPECTED MIN5.9
SCORING SHARE4.3%
CREATION SHARE9.7%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR40.4%
With/without sample did not qualify for publication.